Annual Report 1995: "Global Environmental Policy - Therapy for Patient Earth?"
In their report "World in Transition : Steps Towards Global Environmental Solutions" the experts come to the conclusion that the global development of environmental destruction could come to a halt if there was immediate political action. According to the Council the most worrying environmental problems are global climate change, the dramatic loss of fertile soils, the loss of biodiversity and the increasing scarcity of global freshwater resources. These problems are further amplified by a still growing global population.
Industrial countries play a key role in the process of global warming, they account for roughly 80% of total energy consumption. The per capita CO2 emission in Germany, for example, is twenty times higher than in India. Therefore it is the industrial countries who have to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions drastically.
The German Advisory Council on Global Change has devised a method of analysis in which a 'tolerance window' for future climatic development is developed, defining the level of climate change just about tolerable for mankind and nature. With the help of mathematical models a set of admissible emission profiles for greenhouse gases are derived, thereby identifying the necessary GHG reduction targets for Germany and other countries. The analysis shows that a business as usual strategy with stagnating or increasing emissions will lead to an 'overshooting' out of the 'tolerance window' in notmore than 25 years. In contrast, a CO2 emission reduction of 1 % annually global climate could be stabilized within the 'window'.
Another issue of concern is the rate of acceleration in which biodiversity is lost. The main driving forces here are the destruction of natural habitats through urbanization, road construction, deforestation, agricultural expansion and mass tourism. The simultaneous loss of genetic diversity is of special concern, especially the diminishing number of crop plants which become increasingly vulnerable to pests. In the long run, this 'genetic erosion' is likely to threaten global food security as well. The Council therefore calls for a rapid implementation of the biodiversity convention.
For the solution of global environmental problems international agreements have become more and more important. Germany, after its reunification an increasingly important global player, has an international obligation to contribute to these international processes and implement them. By and large the international agreements agreed to as of yet point into the right direction. However, the conventions on climate protection, biodiversity and desertification now have to be implemented. Herefore new environmental policy instruments are needed. One example would be joint implementation, an instrument with which industialized countries can reduce parts of their abatement obligations by financing CO2 reduction measures in developing countries. Another important issue is that WTO fulfils its pledges towards more environmental protection.
Moreover, the council holds the opinion that a necessary prerequisite of successful environmental policy is comprehensive environmental awareness within a society. More and better environmental education programmes are therefore crucial. This education has to take into account the daily experiences of people with environmental degradation, and they should learn to see how their own lifestyle and culture can contribute further to the problems. This should happen in developed and developing countries alike. Currently especially NGOs contribute significantly to environmental education, and support for them should therefore be increased.
In developing countries there is a further reason for global environmental problems - poverty. Combating poverty, provision of care to the aged, providing equality for women, reducing child mortality and improving education and training is what is required most in order to protect the environment. Population growth is still unbroken and involuntary migrations are its result. Megacities with more than 10 Mio. inhabitants are ever growing and uncontrolled urbanization processes will very likely lead to collapses. In addition, international migration flows have increased since the beginning of the 90s and will most likely in the long run also affect the Federal Republic.
Increasingly concerned about the preservation of the natural basis for life and development of humanity, the Federal Government established the German Advisory Council on Global Change on April 8, 1992. This step was taken with the insight that the necessity for international action is ever growing. The Council presents an annual report on the state of the global environment and the social consequences involved. Particular attention shall be given to the further development of the international agreements concluded in Rio de Janeiro in 1992, and the implementation of AGENDA 21. In addition, the report is to present specific recommendations for environmental action, and outline areas where further research is needed.
