World in Transition – A Social Contract for Sustainability

Climate protection plays a particularly important part in the transformation towards sustainability, as it is a conditio sine qua non for sustainable development: although climate protection alone cannot guarantee the conservation of the natural life-support systems on which humanity depends, it is nevertheless foreseeable that without effective climate protection, mankind will soon have to do without some essential development opportunities.

The transition to climate-friendliness within the scope of sustainable development mainly concerns the following three key supporting pillars of contemporary global society. These pillars should be the starting point for any political agenda.
Firstly, the energy systems, including the transport sector, which the entire economy depends on, and which are currently facing a new wave of growth due to the fast-paced dynamics of the development of the industrialising countries. The energy sector causes around two-thirds of today’s longlived greenhouse gas emissions. 
Secondly, the urban areas, currently responsible for three-quarters of global final energy demand, and whose population will double to 6 billion by 2050. 
Thirdly, the land-use systems (agriculture and forestry, including deforestation), which are currently responsible for almost a quarter of global greenhouse gas emissions. Land-use does not just have to provide enough food for a world population that continues to grow, and becomes more demanding, but also has to deal with a growth in demand due to the increasing use of bioenergy and bio-based raw materials.

The WBGU views this worldwide remodelling of economy and society towards sustainability as a ‘Great Transformation’. Production, consumption patterns and lifestyles in all of the three key transformation fields must be changed in such a way that global greenhouse gas emissions are reduced to an absolute minimum over the coming decades, and low-carbon societies can develop. The extent of the transformation ahead of us can barely be overestimated. In terms of profound impact, it is comparable to the two fundamental transformations in the world‘s history: the Neolithic Revolution, i. e . the invention and spreading of farming and animal husbandry, and the Industrial Revolution, which Karl Polanyi (1944) called the ‘Great Transformation’, meaning the transition from agricultural to industrialised society.

The most important starting point for the transformation towards sustainability is the reduction of CO₂ emissions from the use of fossil energy carriers. Apart from decarbonisation, a second major goal of a remodelling of the energy systems is overcoming global energy poverty.

• The state should show conscious awareness of its enabling and proactive role to advance global decarbonisation. However, this can only be legitimate if it goes hand in hand with offering its citizens far more extensive opportunities for participation.
• The greenhouse gas CO₂ should globally be given an ‘commensurate’ global price as soon as possible.
• A European energy policy aiming for a fully decarbonized energy system by 2050 at the latest should be developed and implemented at once. A direct objective should be the promotion of partnerships with North Africa.
• Feed-in tariffs for renewable energies should be introduced worldwide.
• One top priority for any development policy should be to provide access to sustainable energy to the 2.5 to 3 billion people in developing countries currently living in energy poverty.
• A huge effort should be made to steer the world‘s accelerating urbanisation towards sustainability.
• Land-use can and should become climate-friendly, in particular forestry and agriculture.
• Financing of the transformation and the massive investments required should increasingly rely on new business models that help to overcome current investment barriers.
• Within international climate policy, states should continue to work towards an ambitious global treaty. At the same time, multilateral energy policy must promote the worldwide transfer of low-carbon technologies.
• The United Nations should be brought into a position where they can make effective contributions to the transformation. Development organisations should be reorganised into transformation agencies for sustainable development. The G20 should draft a road map for economic development that takes into account the planetary boundaries.

Research and education are going to play a central role during the requisite transformation process, as the realisation of the necessity for restructuring the world economy has been triggered mainly by scientific knowledge. Society should therefore decide on actions that are not a direct response to recently experienced events, but motivated by foresight and precaution. For this purpose, the debate between science, politics and society should be far more structured, more obligatory, and livelier, to ensure a constructive discourse about the best ways to achieve sustainability. Research and education that assume participation can make a decisive contribution to this.