Global
change research focuses on critical changes in the Earth System. Its
aim is to identify the causes of, and interactions between global problems
in the field of environment and development, to identify ways to mitigate
or avoid these problems, and to predict future trends.
The Council's analyses show that humankind
can only progress within the boundaries of a so-called 'development
corridor'. If these boundaries are violated, then development is no
longer sustainable, since it imposes excessive demands on the environment
or on social and economic systems. Determining these 'guardrails' for
sustainable development is an important task of policy-oriented advice
on global change. Acting on this knowledge is the responsibility of
policymakers.
Recent Earth
History
Human development and environmental change are indissolubly linked,
and may no longer be understood as separate processes. To this is added
the extreme complexity of such interrelations, making it exceedingly
difficult to analyze, model and describe the Earth System or parts of
it. The research community is therefore confronted with a new and unique
challenge. Understanding the interactions and dynamics of the Earth
System since the onset of industrialization is not possible without
interdisciplinary collaboration between the social and natural sciences.
Generating new scientific concepts and paradigms which promote transdisciplinary
perspectives and innovative solutions is essential in this regard.
The Council has developed a new approach
of its own to enable such an integrated description of global environment
and development problems and their specific dynamics - the 'syndrome
approach'.
16 Syndromes
Although term 'syndrome' is borrowed from
the medical field, where it relates to complex clinical profiles, in
the analysis of the Earth System it is used primarily to refer to interactions
among multiple cofactors. Treatment of the latter requires an anamnesis,
a diagnosis based on the examination and assessment of symptoms, and,
finally, specific recommendations for therapy. The objective in each
case is to ameliorate or eliminate the symptoms, or, even better, to
avoid them entirely by means of preventive action.
Syndromes are typical cause-effect patterns of global change, with impacts
on both the environment and human development. They can occur in different
constellations in different regions of the world. Syndrome analysis
makes it possible to assess which regions of the world are particularly
susceptible to specific syndromes in the present or future.
The
1996 Annual Report of the WBGU describes
the 16 most important 'clinical profiles' of global change. The syndromes
were classified into three groups. The syndromes of the 'utilization'
category are those resulting from the excessive or uncontrolled exploitation
of natural resources. 'Development' syndromes arise from non-sustainable
development processes, while 'sink' syndromes are those which result
from non-adapted disposal of substances and materials in soil, water
or air.
An
important aspect of each syndrome is its cross-cutting character; for
example, the 'Favela Syndrome' refers to environmental degradation and
poverty in urban settlements, especially in developing countries. In
the slum areas of mega-cities, severe environmental and developmental
problems are often found in high concentration. The situation is further
exacerbated by in-migration from rural areas. A major cause is the 'Green
Revolution Syndrome', which leads to mounting socioeconomic and regional
disparities in rural areas.
The syndrome approach is still undergoing development. The name given
to each syndrome serves as a basic characterization of something that
is always much more complex and multi-layered than such a label can
ever suggest.
So far, the Council has identified the following syndromes of global
change:
The Syndromes
of Global Change
Utilization syndromes
Overcultivation of
marginal land, combined with rural poverty: Sahel Syndrome
Overexploitation of natural ecosystems: Overexploitation Syndrome
Environmental and developmental problems through abandonment of traditional
agricultural practices: Rural Exodus Syndrome
Environmental degradation through agro-industry: Dust Bowl Syndrome
Environmental degradation through depletion of non-renewable resources:
Katanga Syndrome
Destruction of nature by tourism: Mass Tourism Syndrome
Environmental destruction through military impacts: Scorched Earth
Syndrome
Development syndromes
Environmental and developmental problems caused by large-scale, centrally
planned projects: Aral Sea Syndrome
Disruption caused to the environment and society as a consequence of
inappropriate rural development policies: Green Revolution Syndrome
Disregard for environmental standards in the course of rapid economic
growth: Asian Tigers Syndrome
Environmental degradation and urban poverty through uncontrolled urbanization:
Favela Syndrome
Destruction of landscapes through planned expansion of cities and infrastructures:
Urban Sprawl Syndrome
Environmental disasters as a result of technical failures and industrial
accidents: Major Accident Syndrome
Sink syndromes
Environmental degradation through large-scale diffusion of long-lived
substances: Smokestack Syndrome
Threats to the environment through the disposal of waste: Waste Dumping
Syndrome
Long-term pollution at or near industrial locations: Contaminated
Land Syndrome
