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The Future Oceans – Warming Up, Rising High, Turning Sour

WBGU, Berlin, © 2006
110 pages, 3 Tables, 28 Figures,
ISBN 3-936191-14-X

Commissioned Expert's Studies
For this Special Report, the Council has commissioned four expert's studies, which are available for download.

  Special Report
  2006

  
  Full text (PDF)
  (3,3 MB, 110 p.)
PDF
  Press Release
 
  Expert´s Studies  

 

 

 
   CONTENTS
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2.7   Research recommendations 

3   Sea level rise, hurricanes and coastal threats

3.1   Climatic factors

3.1.1   Sea-level rise
3.1.2   Stronger tropical cyclones

3.2   Impacts on coastal regions

3.2.1   Biogeophysical impacts
3.2.2   Socio-economic impacts

3.3   Guard-rail: Sea-level rise

3.3.1   Recommended guard-rail
3.3.2   Rationale 
3.3.3   Feasibility   
  

3.4   Recommendations for action: Develop and implement adaptation

3.4.1   Adapting coastal regions to the consequences of climate change
3.4.2   The adoption of provisions governing loss of territory in international law  

3.5   Research recommendations

4   Ocean acidification

4.1   Chemical changes in seawater

4.1.1   CO2 input
4.1.2   Change in the carbonat budget
4.1.3   Special role of CO2

4.2   Future development of the oceans as a carbon sink

4.3   Effects of acidifiction on marine ecosystems

4.3.1   Physiological effects on marine organisms
4.3.2   Effects on calcifying organisms
4.3.3   Ecosystem structure and higher trophic levels
4.3.4   Effects of acidification on fisheries
4.3.5   Feedback of changes in calcification on the carbon cycle
  

4.4   Guard rail: Ocean acidification

4.4.1   Proposed guard rail
4.4.2   Rationale and feasibility 

4.5   Recommendations for action: Linking climate protection with marine conservation

4.5.1   Reappraising the role of CO2 in climate protection policy
4.5.2   Taking shipping sector emissions into account 

4.6   Research recommendations

5   CO2-storage in the ocean and under the sea floor

5.1  CO2 sequestration

5.1.1   Potential and costs
5.1.2   Risks and sustainability

5.2  Ocean storage

5.2.1   Storage and residence time of CO2
5.2.2   Impacts of CO2 storage on deep-sea organisms
5.2.3   Present international law

5.3  Sub-seabed geological storage

5.3.1   CO2 injection into the geological sub-seabed
5.3.2   Risks and sustainability of CO2 storage in the seabed
5.3.3   Regulating sub-seabed geological storage

5.4  Recommendations for action: Regulating CO2 storage

5.4.1   Prohibiting CO2 injection into the ocean
5.4.2   Limiting CO2 storage in the seabed

5.5   Research recommendations

6   Methane hydrates in the sea floor 

6.1   The methane hydrate reservoir

6.2   Methane release due to human intervention

6.2.1   Response to pressure and temperature changes
6.2.2   Effects of climate change on methane hydrates
6.2.3   Mining of methane hydrates

6.3   Possible results of methane release
6.4   Recommendations for action: Preventing methane release
6.5   Research recommendations

7   Core messages

8   References


 

 


Acknowledgements

It would not have been possible to produce this special report without the committed and untiring efforts of the staff of the Council Members and the WBGU Secretariat in Berlin.
The scientific team participating in the work of WBGU when this report was written included:

Prof Dr Meinhard Schulz-Baldes (WBGU Secretary-General), Dr Carsten Loose (WBGU Deputy Secretary-General, WBGU Secretariat Berlin), Steffen Bauer, MA (Environmental Policy Research Centre, Free University of Berlin, since 01.01.2006), Dr Gregor Betz (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research – PIK, until 30.09.2005), Dipl.-Phys. Gregor Czisch (Institute for Electrical Engineering/Efficient Energy Conversion (IEE-RE), Kassel, until 01.03.2006), Dipl.-Volksw. Oliver Deke (WBGU Secretariat Berlin, from 17.10.2005), Dipl.-Umweltwiss. Tim Hasler (WBGU Secretariat Berlin), Dr Monika Heupel (University of Bremen, until 15.10.2005), Dipl.-Volksw. Kristin Hoffmann (Swiss Federal Institute of Technology Zurich), Dr Susanne Kadner (PIK, Potsdam, until 30.04.2006), Dr Sabina Keller (Swiss Federal Institute of Technology Zurich), Dipl.-Pol. Lena Kempmann (WBGU Secretariat Berlin), Dipl.-Geogr. Andreas Manhart (Institute for Applied Ecology, Freiburg), Dr Franziska Matthies (University of Copenhagen, until 31.10.2005), Dr Nina V. Michaelis (WBGU Secretariat Berlin, until 18.11.2005), Dipl.-Volksw. Markus Ohndorf (Swiss Federal Institute of Technology Zurich), Dr Benno Pilardeaux (WBGU Secretariat Berlin), Dr Martin Scheyli (University of Fribourg, Switzerland), Dr Astrid Schulz (WBGU Secretariat Berlin), Dipl.-Pol. Joachim Schwerd (University of Applied Sciences, Mainz).

WBGU is also grateful for the important contributions and support provided by other members of the research community. This special report builds on the following expert’s studies which were commissioned by WBGU:

• Prof David Archer (Department of Geophysical Sciences, University of Chicago) Destabilization of Methane Hydrates: A Risk Analysis.
• Dr Nick Brooks, Prof Dr Robert Nicholls, Prof Dr Jim Hall (Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK) Sea Level Rise: Coastal Impacts and Responses.
• Dr Keith Brander (International Council for the Exploration of the Sea – ICES, Copenhagen, Denmark) Assessment of Possible Impacts of Climate Change on Fisheries.
• Prof Dr Hans-Otto Pörtner (Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar- and Marine Research, Bremerhaven, Germany) Auswirkungen von CO2-Eintrag und Temperaturerhöhung auf die marine Biosphäre.

WBGU would also like to thank all those experts who gave us their opinion on drafts of the special report, providing us with invaluable comments and advice:

– Dr Peter G. Brewer (Monterey Bay Aquarium Research Institute, USA),
– Prof Atsushi Ishimatsu (Nagasaki University,
Japan),
– Dr James Orr (Laboratoire des Sciences du
Climat et de l’Environnement, Gif-Sur-Yvette, Frankreich),
– Prof Dr Ulf Riebesell (Leibniz Institute of Marine Sciences, Kiel, Germany).
In addition, for providing peer reviews or contributions to individual chapters of the report, WBGU also thanks Dipl-Phys Jochen Bard (Institute for Solar Energy Technology – ISET, Kassel), Dr Matthias Hofmann (PIK, Potsdam) and Dr Corinne Le Quéré (School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK).

Sincere thanks also go to the organizers and discussion partners who were involved in the WBGU study trip to Norway from 6 to 14 October 2005. Many experts from the fields of government administration, politics and science prepared visits, events and presentations for WBGU and made themselves available for discussions. WBGU would like to express special thanks to Ambassador Roland Mauch and our contact person in the German Embassy in Oslo, Ms Charlotte Schwarzer, for their support in organizing the trip.
WBGU is also indebted to the staff of the following institutions and companies for the useful discussions and conversations we had with them

– SINTEF Stiftelsen for industriell og teknisk forskning, Trondheim,
– NTNU Norges teknisk-naturvitenskapelige universitet, Trondheim,
– Universitetet i Bergen,
– Havforskningsinstituttet – Institute of Marine Research (IMR), Bergen,
– BCCR Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen,
– Havforskningsinstituttet, Austevoll, Storebø,
– Sea Star International AS, Storebø,
– Statoil ASA, Stavanger,
– Miljostiftelsen Bellona, Oslo,
– Miljoverndepartementet (Environment Ministry), Oslo,
– Fiskeri- og Kystdepartementet (Ministry of Fisheries and Coastal Affairs), Oslo,
– Olje- og Energidepartementet (Ministry of Petroleum and Energy), Oslo.

Particular thanks are due to Statoil for allowing us to visit its Sleipner gas production platform in the North Sea and giving us a detailed introduction to the platform’s technology, gas production and CO2 sequestration. Platform manager Egil Kai Elde was a patient guide, answering all our questions.

WBGU thanks Christopher Hay (Translation Bureau for Environmental Sciences, Seeheim-Jugenheim, Germany) for his expert translation of this report into English from the German original.

 
 
 

 IMPRESSUM

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German Advisory Council on Global Change - WBGU
Secretariat
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D-10785 Berlin
phone: 030 263948 0
fax: 030 263948 50
Email:
wbgu@wbgu.de
Website:
http://www.wbgu.de

Cover:
Sleipner gas platform in the North Sea (M. Schulz-Baldes, WBGU), „Elephant Foot Glacier“ in the Arctic (H. Oerter, AWI Bremerhaven), coral reef (Dan Barbus, Romania), fishing in the Pacific (Australian Customs Service)

Copy deadline: 23 March 2006

This special report is available through the Internet in German and English through http://www.wbgu.de/wbgu_sn_2006_en.html.

ISBN 3-936191-14-X

© 2006, WBGU

 

 


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