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Special
Report submitted to the Federal Government
Climate
Protection Strategies for the 21st Century: Kyoto and Beyond
Special
report – Input to the 9th Conference of the Parties to the Climate
Change Convention due on 1-12 December 2003 in Milano
Berlin,
25. November 2003. Today, the German
Advisory Council on Global Change (WBGU) submits to the federal ministers
Edelgard Bulmahn (Research) and Jürgen
Trittin (Environment) its new report "Climate
Protection Strategies for the 21st Century: Kyoto and Beyond". In
their report, the Council’s scientists underscore that dangerous
climate change can now only be prevented if climate protection targets
are set at substantially higher levels than those agreed internationally
until now. In particular, anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions must
be cut globally by 45-60% by the year 2050 relative to 1990. This means
that industrialized countries have to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions
by at least 20% by 2020. Industrialized countries have committed to reducing
emissions by 5% by 2012 relative to 1990.
Only
1.4°C further warming still tolerable
The
scope for action to prevent dangerous climate change has continued to
narrow in recent years. The Council notes that now only a further 1.4°C
global warming is still tolerable. The global mean temperature has already
risen by 0.6°C since the onset of industrialization. Beyond a total
warming of more than 2°C (and a rate of change of more than 0.2°C
per decade) dangerous climatic changes become highly probable. Without
vigorous climate protection policies, this threshold will be crossed in
the 21st century. By dangerous climatic changes, the Council means, for
instance, growing health hazards caused by the spread of malaria, increasing
harvest failure risks, mounting freshwater scarcity due to increased drought
frequency, and the onset of a cold period in the Atlantic-European region
as a result of the Gulf Stream shutting down.
Shaping
commitments equitably
For global climate protection policy to succeed, all countries of the
world will need to participate soon. For developing countries to gradually
take up emissions reduction commitments, it is essential in the view of
the Council that this process is shaped in such a way that these countries
can exercise their right to development. This means that, for an interim
period, growth in their emissions must be permitted. At the same time,
the industrialized countries must continue to reduce their share in global
carbon dioxide emissions. This process, continuous for both sides, should
lead to equal per-capita emissions by the year 2050.
No
alternatives to the Kyoto process
Speedy ratification of the Kyoto Protocol by Russia is a further precondition
for climate protection policy to succeed. In view of the numerous climate
change mitigation activities in a number of states of the USA, and considering
the potential for economic innovation stemming from climate protection
policy, it can be expected that, over the medium term, the USA will support
the Kyoto process again. The WBGU stresses that no alternatives are in
sight and that therefore all actions that call the Kyoto Protocol into
question set global climate protection policy back by years and greatly
hamper efforts to prevent dangerous climate impacts.
Negotiating
a separate protocol for natural carbon stocks
To prevent further valuable carbon stocks being lost, there is an urgent
need to contain deforestation and the associated emissions. In the opinion
of the Council, the accounting procedure for biological sources and sinks
of greenhouse gases agreed in the Kyoto Protocol is not suited to provide
incentives to preserve the key ecosystems of relevance to climate protection.
The Council therefore recommends negotiating, in addition to the Kyoto
Protocol, a separate agreement on the conservation of natural carbon stocks.
Smoothing
emissions trading through a Climate Central Bank
To smoothen extreme price swings on the market for emission rights and
thus allay uncertainties, the Council recommends supporting emissions
trading by establishing a Climate Central Bank. Reliable emissions reporting
by countries is key to targeted climate change mitigation and functioning
emissions trading. Consequently, only such countries whose greenhouse
gas inventories meet high quality standards should be allowed to sell
emission rights.
Dovetailing
climate protection with global sustainability policy
To
attain climate protection objectives at costs that remain low over the
long term, climate protection policy needs to dovetail consistently with
global structural and development policy. Convergence of living conditions
between industrialized and developing countries is an important precondition
to successful global climate change mitigation policy. To this end, the
Council recommends intensifying technology transfer and opening, to the
greatest possible extent, markets to products from developing countries.
This development process will reduce the costs of climate change mitigation
over the long term and will contribute to slowing population growth.
The context
of the special report
The international community will need to take key strategic decisions
in international climate policy over the next years if dangerous climatic
changes are still to be prevented. Negotiations on the 2nd commitment
period of the Kyoto Protocol will start by 2005 at the latest if the Protocol
has entered into force by then. In its present form, the effect of the
Protocol is still too weak. Even if the industrialized (Annex I) states
achieve their 5% emissions reduction target, the anticipated global warming
would be only slightly dampened. The 2008-2012 commitment period is just
the first step. Further steps must follow.
Please direct your queries to:
WBGU Secretariat
Reichpietschufer 60-62, 8th Floor
D-10785 Berlin
Germany
Tel. +49 30 263948 12
Fax +49 30 263948 50
Email: wbgu@wbgu.de
All press releases and reports can be downloaded
at http://www.wbgu.de.
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