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Scenario for the derivation of
global CO2-reduction targets and implementation strategies
Statement
on the occasion of the First Conference of the Parties to the Framework
Convention on Climate Change in Berlin
WBGU, Bremerhaven, © 1995
39 pages Out of print
On
the occasion of the First Conference of the Parties to the Framework
Convention on Climate Change, the German Advisory Council on Global
Change submits the following statement on global CO2 reduction targets
and implementation strategies.
The Council derives a global CO2 reduction target by using an "inverse
scenario" based on simplified models for climate dynamics and
the carbon cycle. By first analysing the maximum stress levels caused
by climate change that one can assume to be ecologically and economically
bearable, a "tolerance window" for the future climatic
development is deduced. In a further step, the set of admissible
emission profiles is determined, i.e. those global CO2 emission
functions which keep the climate system within the demarcated window.
Among the so-defined family of emission options a specific strategy
is finally singled out by feasibility criteria.
The Council believes that such an integrated assessment of the climate
change problem in the "backwards mode" has several advantages
in comparison with the straightforward approach. It has to be emphasised,
however, that the analysis employs a number of assumptions and approximations
and therefore has the character of a "Gedankenexperiment".
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