The sustainable potential of biogenic wastes and residues

WBGU estimates the technical potential of biogenic wastes and residues worldwide to be around 80 EJ per year. However ­ for soil protection and other reasons ­ the sustainably usable potential can be set at only about 50 EJ per year, of which around a half may be economically viable. The scientific basis for estimates of the sustainable global potential of wastes and residues is very slim; WBGU recommends that further studies be carried out so that more precise estimates can be made.

A new modelling of the global sustainable potential of energy crop

Since the available estimates of potential are based on different methods and deliver widely varying results, WBGU has undertaken a new analysis of the global sustainable potential of energy crops. This estimate is based on a dynamic global vegetation model. Scenarios of the potentially available areas of land incorporated those sustainability requirements that must in WBGU’s view be met if a globally integrated perspective is adopted. Future land requirements for food security and nature conservation were estimated and excluded from energy crop cultivation. Areas of land were also excluded if the greenhouse gas emissions arising from the conversion to agricultural land would take more than ten years to be compensated for by the carbon removed from the atmosphere by the cultivation of energy crops; these areas were primarily forests and wetlands. Different scenarios relating to climate, emissions and irrigation were also examined, although set against food security and nature conservation the influence of these three factors is relatively small. These different scenarios result in figures for the global sustainable technical potential from energy crops of between 30 EJ and 120 EJ per year.

Figure 1 shows a scenario that represents an average estimate of potential. It describes the technical potential that can be produced in a sustainable manner. However, considerations of economic viability and political conditions in the different parts of the world impose further restrictions on this technical potential. WBGU therefore conducted a further analysis of the regions in which the modelling identifies significant sustainable bioenergy potentials. The preconditions for rapid realization of these potentials include a minimum level of security and political stability in the countries and regions concerned: significant investment activity cannot be expected in fragile states or those embroiled in civil war. Infrastructure-related and logistical capacities are also required, together with a basic level of regulatory competence, if sustainability requirements are to be formulated and implemented.

In the light of these factors five regions were considered in more detail; in the other regions it was either the case that the estimated bioenergy potentials are relatively low (e. g. the Middle East and North Africa), or that economic and government capacity can be regarded as given in the foreseeable future (e. g. North America, Europe). As the results of the modelling show, there are considerable potentials for the sustainable cultivation of energy crops in tropical and subtropical latitudes. Central and South America alone account for 8­25 EJ per year. The political and economic conditions there are also particularly favourable for realizing the sustainable bioenergy potential compared to the other regions. In addition, good prospects for harnessing the sustainable potential to the extent of 4­15 EJ per year exist in China and its neighbouring countries; there, too, it would be possible to secure the necessary investment and develop the required capacities. There is also considerable potential on the Indian subcontinent (2­4 EJ per year) and in South-East Asia (1­11 EJ per year). These regions, however, face particular challenges in the form of high land-use density, risks to food security, deforestation and the need to conserve biological diversity. On account of state fragility or the collapse of government, in many African countries it is unrealistic to expect that the full potential of around 5­14 EJ per year in sub-Saharan Africa will be realized. In African countries where the economic and political situation is more favourable the options for tapping the potential should be explored in more detail.

Figure 1
Regions with potential for bioenergy, showing countries that are affected by state fragility or collapse of the state. The map shows the distribution of possible areas for the cultivation of energy crops in the year 2050 for a WBGU scenario involving a low level of need for agricultural land, high biodiversity conservation and non-irrigated cultivation. One pixel corresponds to 0.5° x 0.5°. In order to assess whether the identified sustainable bioenergy potentials are likely to be realizable, the standard of governance in individual countries was rated using the Failed States Index (FSI). The countries coloured red have an FSI > 90, indicating that in the short to medium term opportunities for realizing bioenergy potentials can be regarded as non-existent.
Source: WBGU, drawing on data from Beringer and Lucht, 2008 and from Foreign Policy, 2008

Risks to food security

If the food requirements of the world’s growing population are to be met, global food production will need to increase by around 50 % by 2030. The amount of land needed for future food production is also influenced by the land-intensive food consumption patterns of the industrialized countries, which are spreading to the growth regions of emerging economies such as China. This demand can only partly be met by increasing productivity per unit of land; in consequence the FAO estimates that the amount of land used for agriculture will need to be increased by 13 % by 2030. It is therefore likely that there will be a significant increase in competition for the use of agricultural land and, consequently, a trend towards rising food prices. Furthermore, a significant increase in the cultivation of energy crops implies a close coupling of the markets for energy and food. As a result, food prices will in future be linked to the dynamics of the energy markets. Political crises that impact on the energy markets would thus affect food prices. For around one billion people in the world who live in absolute poverty, this situation poses additional risks to food security, and these risks must be taken into account by policy-makers.

Risks to biological diversity

The increased demand for agricultural products that arises from the expansion of bioenergy use can be met by intensifying existing production systems, at the expense of the biological diversity of the land thus farmed. The other option is to claim new agricultural land at the expense of natural ecosystems; this process is at present regarded as the most important driver of the current global crisis of biological diversity. This impact on biodiversity may occur directly, such as when tropical forests are cleared and the land used for energy crops. Indirectly triggered land-use changes are more difficult to assess: when agricultural land is given over to the cultivation of energy plants, the production that previously took place on this land must now take place elsewhere. Through the world market for agricultural goods these indirect displacement effects often acquire an international dimension. Thus, an uncontrolled expansion of energy crop cultivation would further exacerbate the loss of biological diversity.

Risks to climate change mitigation

The conversion of natural ecosystems into new agricultural land releases greenhouse gases. Whether and to what extent greenhouse gas emissions can be reduced by using bioenergy from energy crops depends to a large extent on the land-use changes involved. Emissions created by the conversion of ecosystems that contain a high proportion of carbon (such as forests and wetlands, as well as some natural grasslands) generally negate the climate change mitigation effects that bioenergy use might have. In such cases the use of energy crops may even exacerbate climate change. Both direct and indirect land-use changes must therefore be taken into account in evaluating the greenhouse gas balance of bioenergy use.

Risks to soil and water

Forms of bioenergy that focus on the use of annual energy crops on agricultural land are insufficiently compatible with the goals of soil protection. Perennial cultivation systems, on the other hand, may actually help to restore degraded land. Whether the cultivation of energy crops is acceptable in terms of soil protection also depends on agro-ecological conditions in the region. In addition, the removal of residues from agriculture- or forestry-based ecosystems must be restricted, as the soil may otherwise be depleted of organic substances and mineral nutrients. Uncontrolled expansion of energy crop cultivation and inappropriate cultivation systems may also greatly increase the pressure of use on the available water resources. Energy crops are a new driving force in the land-use sector; the major effects that they may have on future water use have as yet barely been explored.

Production of biomass for use as energy: What are the key issues?

In producing biomass for use as energy a fundamental distinction needs to be made between wastes and residues on the one hand and energy crops on the other.

Priority for the use of wastes and residues

The use of biogenic wastes and residues has the advantage of causing very little competition with existing land uses. It involves no greenhouse gas emissions from land-use changes and cultivation, so that the contribution to climate change mitigation is determined primarily by the conversion into bioenergy carriers and their application in energy systems. When using residues, care must be taken to meet soil protection standards ­ and hence ensure climate change mitigation ­ and that pollutant emissions are avoided. Overall, WBGU attaches higher priority to the recycling of biogenic waste for energy (including cascade use) and to the use of residues than to the use of energy crops.

Land for energy crop cultivation

Where specially cultivated energy crops are used, it is essential to take account of land-use changes. While emissions from direct land-use changes can be quantified using standard values, much greater uncertainty attaches to indirect land-use changes. WBGU uses a provisional method for calculating these indirect effects, enabling an initial rough estimate to be made.

WBGU is strictly opposed to the direct or indirect conversion of woodland, forests and wetlands into agricultural land for energy crops; such conversion is usually accompanied by non-compensatable greenhouse gas emissions and its impacts on biological diversity and soil carbon storage are invariably negative. The cultivation of energy crops should preferably be restricted to land for which the change of use to bioenergy production does not involve indirect land-use changes. The total greenhouse gas emissions initially caused in the context of cultivation should not exceed the quantity of CO2 that can be re-sequestered by the cultivation of energy crops on the land in question within ten years.

The cultivation of biomass on marginal land (that is, land with a limited productive or regulatory function) has the significant advantage that land-use competition, for example with food security, is unlikely; in consequence, indirect land-use changes will probably not be induced. WBGU therefore concludes that marginal land should be preferred for the cultivation of energy crops and this type of land use should be encouraged, provided that the interests of local population groups are taken into account and the implications for nature conservation are assessed before cultivation commences.

Cultivation systems for energy crops

The principal criteria used by WBGU to assess the sustainability of cultivation systems are the effects on biological diversity and soil carbon storage. Bioenergy can only be classed as sustainable energy if the land on which it is grown continues in the long term to produce as much biomass as is used for energy ­ in other words, if long-term soil fertility is ensured. Only in this situation can it justifiably be assumed that the carbon that is removed from the atmosphere and stored by the energy crops and that is re-released in the form of CO2 when the crops are used for energy does not lead to an increase in the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere and therefore does not need to be regarded as an emission. In addition, differing yields per unit of land must be taken into account. From this point of view perennial crops such as Jatropha, oil palms, short-rotation plantations (fast-growing timber) and energy grasses score better than annual crops such as rape, cereals or maize; the former group should therefore always be preferred. If suitable cultivation systems are chosen, additional organic carbon can be incorporated into the soil; this improves both the greenhouse gas balance and soil fertility.

Conversion, end-use application and system integration: What are the best ways of using bioenergy

Once the biomass has been made available, the climate change mitigation effect is mainly determined by two factors: the way in which biomass is converted into usable products such as gas, plant oils, biofuels or wood pellets, and the way in which it is used and integrated into the energy system ­ for example, into transport or into the generation of heat or electricity. On the whole, however, these influences carry less weight than the effect of direct or indirect land-use changes in connection with the cultivation of energy crops. Much depends on what energy carrier the biomass replaces and on the magnitude of the energy losses in the conversion pathway. In industrialized countries, in the rapidly developing urban and industrialized regions of newly industrializing countries and in some cases also in developing countries the way in which bioenergy is used should be geared towards its climate change mitigation effect. In relation to overcoming energy poverty the primary tasks are modernization of traditional bioenergy use and provision of access to modern forms of energy such as electricity and gas. Both are challenges that are of particular importance in the rural regions of developing countries. Here, too, the use of bioenergy can have a positive effect on climate change mitigation.

Mitigating climate change

From the point of view of climate change mitigation the most attractive application areas for bioenergy are, firstly, those in which bioenergy can replace fossil fuels with high CO2 emissions, predominantly coal.

Roughly similar reductions in greenhouse gases can be achieved by various conversion pathways producing electricity, such as co-combustion in coal-fired or cogeneration plants, the use of biogas from fermentation or crude gas from gasification in cogeneration (combined heat and power, CHP) plants, or the use of biomethane in small-scale CHP plants or combined-cycle power plants. Where biomethane is used, however, a greater climate change mitigation effect can be achieved if the CO2 which must in any case be captured during the production process can be securely stored. The conversion of biomass into electricity has the additional advantage that, unlike liquid fuels for transport, it eases the shift towards electric mobility. The current greenhouse gas (GHG) abatement costs of these pathways vary widely: while the simple co-combustion of solid biomass and the use of biogas or biomethane from fermentation already represent cost-efficient climate change mitigation options, this is not yet the case for gasification technologies (although significant reductions in costs can be expected). The use of biomethane is also particularly attractive for technological and system-related reasons, since it can be collected and distributed over natural-gas grids and converted very efficiently into electricity in small-scale CHP units or combined-cycle power plants near where it is needed. The biomethane route can already be recommended for industrialized countries; for industrialized regions in newly industrializing and developing countries it is a promising option for the future.

On account of its high energy efficiency combined heat and power production is to be preferred to the generation of electricity alone, provided that demand for the heat exists. In regions where this is appropriate CHP can also be used to generate cooling, a factor which is of interest for many developing and newly industrializing countries. Where bioenergy is used exclusively for the production of heat (e. g. pellet stoves) GHG abatement costs are relatively high and the potential for reducing greenhouse gas emissions is only about half that which can be achieved in the electricity sector; such use is therefore only worthwhile as a transition measure where alternative renewable energy sources are not available. With direct generation from renewables (wind, solar) constituting an ever-larger proportion of production, there will in future be a significant increase in the overall energy efficiency of electric heat pumps, so that in the medium term they will represent a viable alternative for heat generation. Overall CHP pathways are to be preferred both to pure electricity and pure heat use pathways.

From the point of view of climate change mitigation the first-generation biofuels (such as biodiesel from rape or bioethanol from maize), which involve the cultivation of temperate, annual crops on agricultural land, score very badly. When emissions from indirect land-use changes are taken into account, they frequently result in higher emissions than would arise from the use of fossil fuels. Where residues are used (e. g. timber waste, liquid manure, straw) the impact on the greenhouse gas balance is indeed positive, but the reduction in greenhouse gases is only about half that of applications in the electricity sector. Second-generation biofuels are not on the whole any better.

A different picture emerges for the use of perennial tropical plants such as Jatropha, sugar cane or oil palms that are grown on degraded land and result in carbon being stored in the soil there. In this situation a major climate change mitigation effect can be achieved at low cost. However, if these crops are grown on freshly cleared land or on agricultural land and thus are associated with direct or indirect land-use changes, the greenhouse gas balance becomes negative; in some cases emissions will be substantially larger than would be the case using fossil fuels. Ensuring sustainability in the cultivation of energy crops is therefore the deciding factor in evaluating the climate change mitigation effect of these pathways.

Since there are as yet no established sustainability standards for biofuels, their import and use pose problems. Once relevant minimum standards have been introduced, it may be appropriate to import plant oils and bioethanol ­ perhaps produced in tropical regions ­ for power and heat applications. During the transition period, however, care should be taken to avoid any promotion of biofuels that fail to meet the envisaged minimum standards.

For the future of mobility on the roads, WBGU considers the most appropriate solution to be the generation of electricity from renewables in combination with the use of electric vehicles. This means of utilizing bioenergy achieves a significantly higher climate change mitigation effect than blended biofuels. If electric vehicles were to be introduced on a large scale, it is likely that the costs could be drastically reduced within 15­20 years, enabling the GHG abatement costs ­ which at present remain very high ­ to also be reduced. Through the use of smart grids, electromobility can also contribute as control energy to the stabilization of power grids. WBGU recommends a swift phase-out of the promotion of biofuels for transport purposes. The quotas for blending biofuels with fossil fuels should be frozen and should then be completely removed within the next three to four years.

Overall, the substitution of bioenergy for fossil fuels, making use of the sustainable bioenergy potential estimated by WBGU, can achieve a global reduction in greenhouse gas emissions of 2­5 Gt CO2eq per year. However, this would require all the biomass to be used in such a way that the greenhouse gas reduction amounts to 60 t CO2eq per TJ of raw biomass used. This corresponds to roughly a doubling of the mitigation efforts currently under discussion in the EU as a standard for biofuels in the transport sector. WBGU proposes this level as a necessary precondition for promotion of bioenergy use. From a very optimistic viewpoint it might be possible to achieve a reduction in greenhouse gases of up to 4­9 Gt CO2eq per year. By way of comparison: global anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions currently amount to around 50 Gt CO2eq per year, and a hypothetical stop to global deforestation would reduce these emissions by up to 8 Gt CO2eq.

Leaving aside bioenergy pathways that involve the use of marginal land in the tropics or are based on established technologies such as co-combustion in coal-fired power plants or the production of biogas through fermentation, the GHG abatement costs of many bioenergy pathways in 2005 were significantly more than 60 ¤ per t CO2eq; in WBGU’s view they cannot therefore be currently considered to be cost-efficient climate change mitigation options.

The cultivation of energy crops must therefore be carefully weighed against other climate change mitigation options, such as afforestation or the avoidance of deforestation. It is particularly important that energy crop cultivation does not undermine the politically very complex endeavours to reduce emissions from deforestation.

If exploitation of the sustainable bioenergy potential is combined with the capture and secure storage of CO2, it is possible for “negative” CO2 emissions to be produced. By this means around 0.2 ppm CO2 could be removed from the atmosphere per year. This corresponds to around one-tenth of the current annual increase in the concentration of CO2 ­ hence even over quite lengthy periods of time this technology can counteract only a relatively small proportion of the human-induced increase in the concentration of CO2.

Until a global system of mandatory limits to greenhouse gas emissions is put in place that encompasses all relevant sources, WBGU recommends emissions standards for bioenergy.

Overcoming enery poverty

In the rural regions of developing countries, and to some extent also in their urban areas, overcoming energy poverty is an important precondition for tackling poverty in general. As a first step WBGU recommends as an international objective the complete phase-out of traditional forms of bioenergy use that are harmful to health by the year 2030.

To achieve this, some technologies can even now be implemented rapidly and at low cost. The use of improved cooking stoves can cut fuel consumption by between one-half and three-quarters while at the same time drastically reducing the risks to health. Greater emphasis should also be placed on the promotion of small, decentralized biogas plants for residues and wastes, and on the use of plant oil ­ produced from oil plants grown locally on marginal land ­ for lighting, electricity generation and mechanical energy use. These technologies also help to reduce the pressure of use on natural ecosystems and to tackle poverty, because the time and money required to procure the fuel is significantly reduced. They provide an important lever for significantly improving the quality of life of many hundred millions of people in a short time and at low cost. It is important, though, to ensure at all stages of development cooperation in this field that the technologies are accepted and that they can be maintained by the individuals who use them.

Further down the track to reducing energy poverty, access to modern forms of energy, particularly electricity and gas, is a priority. In developing countries medium-scale use of modern bioenergy to generate electricity in CHP or gasification plants can be an important means to this end, particularly if biomass such as that from residues or from timber plantations on marginal land is used. The use of liquid fuels for stationary applications (e.g. electricity generation, water pumps, cooking) may be appropriate in rural regions of developing countries, if these regions are at a disadvantage in terms of infrastructure on account of their remoteness.

The larger-scale production and use of modern bioenergy, which can likewise contribute to the tackling of energy poverty in developing countries, should always also be considered from the point of view of its climate change mitigation effect. For those bioenergy pathways that are associated with low GHG abatement costs, new sources of funding can be accessed through international climate protection instruments.

Energy crops as bridging technology

The sustainable use of bioenergy from energy crops can be an important bridging technology during the transformation from existing fossil energy systems to future systems based predominantly on wind and solar energy. It can fulfil this function only until approximately the middle of the century, for two reasons:

Firstly, demands on global land use will increase markedly in the coming decades as a result of dynamic trends such as a growing world population with increasingly land-intensive patterns of food consumption, increased soil degradation and water scarcity. In addition, for reasons of climate change mitigation, among others, there will be a growing tendency for petrochemical products to be produced from biomass. The non-substitutable land use for the manufacture of textiles, chemical products, plastics etc. is likely to require around 10 % of world agricultural land. After use some of the biomass-based products will be able to be recycled as biogenic waste for purposes of energy recovery (“cascade use”). These increasing pressures on land use take place against a backdrop of increasingly manifest anthropogenic climate change. Because of all this, the cultivation of energy crops will probably have to be cut back in the second half of the century.

Secondly, in forthcoming decades there will be a growing trend for renewable energy in the form of electricity to be produced directly by wind and water power, as well as by solar energy on a large scale from the middle of the century; by this time, therefore, energy crops will largely have fulfilled their function of bridging the way to sustainable energy provision. This will not affect the part of bioenergy use that centres on the use of wastes and residues which, together with the remaining use of fossil fuels, will increasingly take on the task ­ as control energy in power grids ­ of balancing fluctuations in the output of directly generated electricity from renewables. In combination with smart electricity grids, electromobility can also make an important contribution to control energy.

Consider bioenergy in the CDM in more specific detail

The Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) involves only a small number of bioenergy projects and these have as yet had only a limited influence on overall bioenergy use in newly industrializing and developing countries. Any expansion of CDM projects that include the cultivation of energy crops should be viewed with scepticism unless it can be ensured that the use of land for this purpose will not give rise to the well-known displacement effects and result in terrestrially stored carbon being released elsewhere. The scope for CDM projects to improve or replace inefficient traditional biomass use should be utilized without damaging the integrity of the CDM. As a matter of principle, CDM projects in the area of bioenergy should be certain of meeting the minimum standard called for by WBGU.

Gradually introduce minimum standards for bioenergy and sustainable land use

As a first step, a statutory minimum standard for all types of bioenergy should be introduced promptly at EU level. The sustainability criteria for liquid biofuels for transport contained in the planned EU directive on the promotion of renewable energies should be further developed and applied as a minimum standard for all types of bioenergy in the EU. In addition to provisions relating to soil, water and biodiversity conservation, the standard should include impacts of indirect land-use changes and criteria for restricting the use of genetically modified organisms (GMOs). Certain core labour standards of the International Labour Organization (ILO) should also be made mandatory. With regard to greenhouse gas emissions, WBGU recommends to request a specific absolute emissions reduction in relation to the quantity of raw biomass used, rather than a relative emissions reduction based on the final energy or useful energy. The use of bioenergy carriers should reduce life-cycle greenhouse gas emissions by at least 30 t CO2eq per TJ of raw biomass used in comparison with fossil fuels.

The cultivation of energy crops and the supply of biomass resources should only be promoted if this gives rise to a demonstrable reduction of energy poverty or to demonstrable advantages for climate change mitigation, as well as soil, water and biodiversity conservation, and if such cultivation also rates positively with regard to social criteria. Another precondition for promotion should be that the use of bioenergy carriers can achieve a reduction in life-cycle greenhouse gas emissions of at least 60 t CO2eq per TJ of raw biomass used in comparison with fossil fuels. Bioenergy pathways considered particularly worthy of promotion are the use of biogenic wastes and residues and the cultivation of energy crops on marginal land, if the above-mentioned promotion criteria are met.

In order to attain the goal of globally sustainable land use there is a need in the medium term for a global land-use standard to regulate the production of all types of biomass for a wide range of uses (food and feed, use for energy and use as an industrial feedstock, etc.) across national borders and cross-sectorally. The EU member states should therefore prepare suitable provisions for extending the bioenergy standards to all types of biomass.

Until a globally agreed land-use standard is created, the anchoring of bioenergy standards in bilateral agreements remains an effective instrument for increasing sustainability. WBGU recommends that the European states include binding sustainability criteria in future agreements with countries that are important producers and consumers of bioenergy. Existing bilateral agreements should be amended to this end. In return, trading partners who adhere to the minimum standard should be accorded free market access for bioenergy carriers.

With a view to WTO rules and in order to limit recourse to alternative markets for bioenergy products that fail to meet the minimum standard, the German government should also endeavour to ensure that international consensus on a minimum standard for sustainable bioenergy and on a comprehensive international bioenergy strategy is achieved as quickly as possible. During the transition period efforts must be made to rapidly dismantle all promotion of non-sustainable bioenergy use.

Establish certification schemes for sustainable bioenergy carrier

To enable adherence to the minimum standard to be demonstrated, corresponding certification systems must be created promptly. WBGU recommends the development of an internationally applicable certification scheme for all types of biomass. This makes it easier for the bioenergy standards to be extended at a later stage to other uses of biomass. The International Sustainability and Carbon Certification system drawn up on behalf of the German Ministry of Food, Agriculture and Consumer Protection (BMELV) or a comparable certification system should be put in place at an early stage.

The duty to furnish proof that the standards have been adhered to could lie in the first instance with the entity marketing the end product. This would remove the need for a duty to certify the origin of bioenergy feedstocks that could also be used for non-energy purposes. While the certification should be carried out by private companies, institutions capable of imposing sanctions must be created by the state to monitor actual implementation of the standards. Developing countries, and in particular the least developed countries, should be offered technical and financial assistance in setting up certification systems and monitoring bodies, and in implementing the certification.

Ensure WTO conformity of environmental and social standards

The World Trade Organization (WTO) conformity of a unilateral European standard can be justified in law, particularly with regard to criteria for the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions and the protection of global biodiversity, because the necessity of protecting climate and biodiversity is laid down in multilateral environmental agreements in international law. In general the acceptance of environmental and social standards in the WTO regime needs to be further improved. In addition, the intended liberalization of trade in relation to what are known as “environmental goods and services” (EGS) must not run counter to the goal of sustainable production and use of such goods and services. In the context of the relevant negotiations the German government should therefore work to ensure that goods are not classified as EGS unless they are guaranteed to meet the minimum standard called for by WBGU and/or result from sustainable bioenergy pathways.

Biodiversity conservation: Utilize the opportunities presented by the CBD

The expansion of bioenergy must not result in the directly or indirectly induced conversion of natural ecosystems. To prevent this, an effective system of protected areas is essential. WBGU recommends that a global, ecologically representative and effectively managed system of protected areas with adequate financing should be set up on 10­20 % of the world’s terrestrial surface by 2010. The Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) is the key international agreement for implementing this guard rail for biosphere conservation.

Remodel assistance in the agricultural sector

Sustainable biomass production for energy purposes should ideally only be promoted if the land use contributes to nature or soil conservation. At the very least, instances of the promotion of biomass production that do not meet the WBGU minimum standard should be brought to an end within the next few years, and transferred to sustainable methods of production wherever possible. In general, production subsidies in the agricultural sector should as far as possible be removed; this would bring an end to inefficient competition for subsidies between countries and remove market distortions in world agricultural trade. Subsidies that yield substantial benefits in development-related or environmental terms form an exception; they should be explicitly permitted.

Phase out promotion of liquid biofuels and promote electromobility

Technology policy on the use of bioenergy in the transport sector must be re-directed. From the point of view of sustainability, promotion of liquid biofuels for road transport ­ particularly in industrialized countries ­ cannot be justified. The reasons for this include the high GHG abatement costs, low or negative GHG reduction potentials per unit of land or per unit of biomass used, and the lock-in effects on an inefficient infrastructure based on the combustion engine. Blending quotas should not be increased any further, and the current blending of biofuels should cease completely within the next three to four years. The road-traffic-related emissions reductions that have been agreed at EU level will then have to be achieved by other means. In the transport sector the highest energy efficiency of biomass is achieved through the generation of electricity and its use in electric vehicles. An appropriate framework for the expansion of electromobility should be developed. Promotion policies can assist businesses in their technological development by helping to expand opportunities for connection to the electricity grid. Demand for electric or hybrid vehicles can be stimulated through taxation policie

Promote bioenergy use paths for electricity and heat production

Greater incentives for utilizing the potential of organic wastes and residues are created primarily through the promotion of renewables in electricity and heat production. The aim must be to promote the use of biogenic wastes and residues in such a way as to ensure that it is distinctly more attractive than the generation of electricity from energy crops. In tandem with this there is a need for appropriate regulation on the extraction of residues from agriculture and forestry, the dumping of waste and cascade uses. In some countries there is already promotion of the direct combustion of biomass (primarily wood chips and pellets from residues) in coal-fired and cogeneration plants and of the use of biogas, crude gas and biomethane; this should be continued and introduced as a priority in all regions in which coal plays a major part in electricity generation. However, it is essential to ensure that the biomass used meets the minimum standard with regard to sustainability. The production of electricity from biomass that meets the promotion criteria should be particularly encouraged. In addition, particular emphasis should be placed on promoting the use of biomethane if the CO2 which is captured during the production process can be removed to secure storage. If at the same time the international scaling-up of cogeneration and combined-cycle power plants accelerates as a result of appropriate climate and energy policy measures and suitable promotional approaches, it will be possible to utilize highly efficient bioenergy pathways and hence achieve globally significant reductions in emissions. In WBGU’s view it is entirely appropriate to promote the combustion of wood chips or pellets for electricity generation, but state subsidies for pure heat use should be provided in industrialized countries at most for a transition period, until a transformed energy system is in place in which this need is met from CHP plants or from heat pumps running on renewable electricity.

Initiate an international agreement on (bio)energy subsidies

In order to cut back energy subsidies that harm the environment and give a higher priority to sustainability criteria, states need to coordinate their policies at international level. They should enter into agreements whereby non-sustainable energy subsidies are removed in all countries and guidelines for permissible subsidies, based on the principle of sustainability, are established. This could occur in the context of a Multilateral Energy Subsidies Agreement (MESA), which at the outset might involve only the most important energy producers and consumers. In the long term the agreement could form part of the WTO regime.

Strategically manage the use of biomass as an industrial feedstock

In order to pave the way for strategies for the use of biomass from agriculture and forestry as a feedstock in industrial production processes, material flow analyses and land-use inventories should be drawn up both globally and nationally. The scenarios should describe likely developments (competition for land use, substitution processes, etc.) and options for action. For key categories of materials and products (cellulose, paper products, etc.) sustainability standards for the cultivation and extraction of feedstocks should be set and product standards with high recycling quotas should be specified. Through suitable measures it should be possible for high levels of resource and product consumption to be greatly reduced.

Base strategies for reducing energy poverty on reliable data

So that alternative ways of providing energy services can be examined and obstacles to implementation can be better understood, actors involved in international development cooperation must work with national actors to draw up strategies for tackling energy poverty. These approaches should be based on reliable empirical findings and must be embedded in suitable policy strategies. WBGU therefore recommends carrying out multi-country cross-sectional evaluations and nationally, regionally and locally specific studies in order to obtain information on best practices.

Support developing countries in drawing up national bioenergy strategies

So that the opportunities and development potentials of bioenergy can be realistically assessed and risks can be minimized, WBGU recommends that strategic issues be discussed in the country context and with as broad a range of stakeholder groups and affected sections of the population as possible, and that decisions then be taken on the priority goals of any promotion of bioenergy. Development cooperation actors should support partner countries in developing these strategies, examining all the forms in which bioenergy and its alternatives can be used and applied, as well as evaluating the suitability of these forms in the context of the local situation. They should also seek to ensure that the minimum standard and promotion criteria are met and that the necessary governance capacities, such as land-use planning and certification, are strengthened. In addition, it is essential that bioenergy strategies be linked to food security strategies.

Promote pilot projects that involve particularly sustainable cultivation systems and the use of wastes and residues

Cultivation methods that are particularly sustainable and that help to combat soil erosion, conserve biodiversity, reduce energy poverty and advance rural development should be promoted in pilot projects. Such methods include, for example, the socially acceptable cultivation of perennial energy crops on degraded land, or agroforestry. WBGU also recommends that the country-specific potentials of wastes and residues be assessed and then utilized in electricity generation, particularly in agro-industrial biogas plants and cogeneration plants where the waste heat is used. Pilot projects can improve the mobilization of the potential of residues and wastes.

Create bioenergy partnerships

Multilateral cooperation for purposes of sustainable bioenergy use can be supplemented by intergovernmental partnerships. Technology agreements are appropriate in this context, for example for scaling up technologies for processing and using biomethane. These technologies can be linked to aspects of sustainable land-use policy or to trade partnerships.

Promote the restructuring of the world energy system

In order to increase the purchasing power of people affected by energy poverty, development cooperation should continue its financial support of microfinancing systems. Cooperation between the private and public sectors should be encouraged in order to mobilize private capital. Greater use can be made of CDM projects for the large-scale substitution of fossil fuels. The technologies recommended by WBGU in connection with the sustainable use of bioenergy in the energy systems of developing countries serve not only to tackle energy poverty; the majority of them also address the issue of climate protection. For instance, making projects that aim to improve the efficiency of traditional uses of bioenergy eligible as small-scale CDM activities is justifiable and can contribute to financing. In addition, the international community should coordinate and support the restructuring of the world energy system. WBGU recommends that the German government should position itself at the forefront of such a process at European level and in the supervisory bodies of the international organizations involved, so that it can continue to maintain its pioneering role in climate change mitigation.

Creation of an institutional framework for the globalization of standards

The Global Bioenergy Partnership (GBEP) should be used as a forum for developing a uniform international bioenergy standard and accelerating multilateral policy formulation. This partnership brings together key stakeholders and includes newly industrializing countries. Efforts should, however, be made to ensure that relevant civil society stakeholders have greater involvement in the dialogue. GBEP or the Task Force on Sustainability should be helped to channel, in their capacity as an intergovernmental forum, the formal and informal processes involved in drawing up global sustainability standards and to work towards the creation of global standards and guidelines. The proposals of WBGU, which has taken up important ideas put forward by the Roundtable on Sustainable Biofuels, could provide a basis for this.

Promote bioenergy through the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA)

The International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) is being set up with the aim of promoting worldwide use of renewable energies through policy advice, technology transfer and knowledge dissemination; this is an appropriate step towards the streamlining and institutional strengthening of international energy policy. Nevertheless, in addition to promotion of renewable energies IRENA should include all aspects of the transformation towards sustainable energy systems in its remit. It should be enabled to address aspects of energy demand and issues relating to energy, the environment and development in a comprehensive and integrated manner.

Convene an International Conference on Sustainable Bioenergy

In order to arrive at a shared global understanding of the opportunities and risks of bioenergy and a consensus on appropriate standards in relation to the production and use of different forms of bioenergy, WBGU recommends that an International Conference on Sustainable Bioenergy be convened at an early stage. This conference could be modelled along the lines of renewables 2004. It could be used to formulate objectives and general promotion principles, exchange ideas for best-practice approaches and draw up agreements on international bioenergy partnerships and on the importance of bioenergy for a sustainable global energy system. It is important that it should bring together actors from the policy areas of agriculture, energy, the environment and development

Set up a global commission for sustainable land use

The increasing pressure on land use is a global challenge of an extent and complexity which is as yet little understood. This calls for the development of a complex new field of global governance in which issues of food, energy, development, environmental and climate policy mesh. On account of the diverse global interactions and linkages involved, it will no longer be possible to see land use solely as an issue for action at individual country level. This is powerfully illustrated by the example of the worldwide effects of indirect land-use changes associated with the expansion of bioenergy, and by the issue of equitable per-capita land use in connection with global food security. A new global commission for sustainable land use should be set up to start these processes at international level and to organize how to approach the issue. The commission’s task should be to identify the key challenges arising from global land use and to assemble the scientific state-of-the-art. Drawing on this groundwork, the commission should then elaborate the principles, mechanisms and guidelines required for global land-use management. The commission could be located within UNEP and work closely with other UN organizations such as the FAO. The findings should be regularly placed on the agenda of the UNEP Global Ministerial Environment Forum or the strategically important G8+5 gatherings of heads of state and government.