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Report "Climate Change as a Security Risk"
Climate
change threatens international stability and security
Berlin,
6 June 2007. The German Advisory Council on Global Change (WBGU) will
today, at the start of the G8 Summit in Heiligendamm, submit its report
"Climate Change as a Security Risk" to Federal Environment Minister,
Sigmar Gabriel, Federal Minister for Economic Cooperation and Development,
Heidemarie Wieczorek-Zeul, to the State Secretary at the Federal Ministry
of Education and Research, Michael Thielen, and to the Minister of State
at the Federal Foreign Office, Gernot Erler. The core message of WBGU's
report is that without resolute counteraction, climate change will overstretch
many societies' adaptive capacities. In some regions of the world, this
may result in internal destabilization processes and state failure with
diffuse conflict structures, inter-state conflicts and an overstretching
of the international system. Classic security policy cannot respond adequately
to these new threats to international stability. Climate policy and strategies
for adaptation to climate change are thus emerging as key elements of
preventive security policy.
However, this challenge could also unite the international community,
provided that it recognizes climate change as a threat to humankind and
sets the course for the avoidance of dangerous climate change in the coming
years. If it fails to do so, climate change will draw ever-deeper lines
of division and conflict in international relations. This problem must
also be addressed at the G8 Summit, which opens today.
1.1 billion people are already without access to adequate quantities of
safe freshwater resources. The situation could worsen in some regions
of the world as climate change is likely to alter the variability of precipitation
and the quantity of available water. Furthermore, food security could
also worsen in some regions as climate change increases the risk of harvest
failure, especially in developing countries. Already, more than 850 million
people worldwide are undernourished. Climate change is also likely to
result in further sea-level rise and more intensive storms and heavy precipitation.
This will greatly increase the risks of natural disasters occurring in
many cities and industrial regions in coastal zones. These impacts could
overburden weak states in particular and, in extreme cases, encourage
their collapse. They may also trigger conflicts over the distribution
of resources, especially water and land, and cause migratory movements.
WBGU analysed selected regional hotspots in more detail. Examples are
Southern Africa and the Ganges Delta which were found to be especially
at risk. Climate change could further weaken the economic potentials of
these regions, worsen the conditions for human security and overstretch
the capacities of states. Compared with the rest of the world, Africa
is already most at risk from destabilization and violent conflict. Millions
of people there are refugees from civil war and poverty, and climate change
is likely to exacerbate simmering conflicts. A further example is Amazonia,
where the collapse of the rainforest would have incalculable economic
and social consequences. Besides the developing countries, however, major
ascendant economic regions such as the east coast of China are also at
risk: here, storm and flood disasters could in future threaten densely
populated cities and industrial regions – with severe economic and
social impacts.
Key threats to international stability
The developments described could extend beyond the directly affected countries
and regions and have global impacts. Unabated climate change would thus
become one of the major sources of political conflict in the 21st century.
WBGU identifies the following key threats to international stability and
security in this context:
- An
increase in the number of weak and fragile states: The impacts
of unabated climate change would further limit these countries' problem-solving
capacities. Due to spillover beyond the directly affected region, e.g.
through environmentally-induced migration, this could ultimately lead
to the emergence of "failing subregions".
- More
intensive distributional conflicts between the main drivers of climate
change and those most affected: The worst affected countries are
likely to invoke the "polluter pays" principle, so international
controversy over a global compensation regime for climate change will
probably intensify. Beside today's industrialized countries, the major
ascendant economies such as China and India will also be called to account
by the developing countries in future. A key line of conflict in global
politics in the 21st century will therefore divide the newly industrializing
countries and the poorer developing countries.
- A
growing loss of legitimacy for the industrialized countries: These
countries and in future the newly industrializing countries could be
accused of knowingly allowing the livelihood of millions of people to
be put at risk through their failure to take prompt action.
- More
migration: The number of migration hotspots around the world will
increase substantially as a result of climate change.
- Risks
for the global economy: Depending on the type and intensity of
the climate impacts, they could have a significant and adverse effect
on the global economy. Unabated climate change is likely to result in
substantially reduced rates of growth.
Resolute action needed within the next 10–15 years
In WBGU's view, resolute climate policy action is needed within the next
10–15 years, in order to avert the socioeconomic disruption and
negative implications for international security that will otherwise intensify
in the medium term. To this end, WBGU recommends that the German Federal
Government implement the following measures:
Ambitiously pursuing international climate policy
In order to avoid dangerous anthropogenic disruption to the climate system,
a 50% reduction in global greenhouse gas emissions (against the 1990 baseline)
is required by 2050. For the commitment period after 2012, the industrialized
countries should commit to a 30% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions
by 2020. Germany and the EU should enter into strategic "decarbonization
partnerships" with newly industrializing countries. Climate protection
should be established as a cross-cutting theme in development cooperation.
Initiating a process modelled on the CSCE
In order to master the security challenges posed by climate change, an
effective multilateral system is needed. In this context, it is essential
to promote the acceptance and the constructive participation of the ascendant
new world powers China and India. Germany should undertake the necessary
advocacy work within the EU and work pro-actively at international level
for the adoption of confidence-building measures. One option is to initiate
a process modelled on the Conference on Security and Co-operation in Europe
(CSCE).
Reforming the United Nations
The Security Council having debated in-depth the security policy implications
of climate change for the first time in April 2007, the Security Council's
mandate must be appropriately adapted to meet these challenges. Furthermore,
the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) should be strengthened
and upgraded by granting it the status of a UN specialized agency. Finally,
the German Government should lobby for an increase in the funding available
to the mechanisms to finance international crisis prevention and peacebuilding
regimes at UN level, which at present are inadequately resourced, in WBGU's
view.
Stabilizing fragile and weak states
Climate change is likely to contribute to the further destabilization
of fragile states. This should be taken into account to a greater extent
in the German Action Plan "Civilian Crisis Prevention, Conflict Resolution
and Post-Conflict Peace-Building". In this context, the crisis prevention
dimension of the European Security Strategy should also be enhanced with
the aim of avoiding military intervention as far as possible. WBGU also
recommends the clear restructuring of military budgets in favour of preventive
measures in the field of development cooperation.
Recognizing development policy as preventive security policy
Climate change will hit developing countries especially hard, but most
developing countries lack the capacities to implement effective adaptation
measures. Action needs to be taken today. This has yet to be fully recognized
in many development institutions. WBGU identifies a particular need for
action in relation to water, food security, disaster prevention, and migration
policy. In order to master these challenges, the timetable for boosting
development assistance adopted by the European Union in 2005 – namely
to increase ODA to 0.56% of donor countries' gross national income by
2010 and to 0.7% by 2015 – must be rigorously adhered to.
Expanding global information and early warning systems
In the era of climate change, timely warning in advance of extreme events
is becoming increasingly important. The German Government should therefore
continue to participate in the development of a global early warning system.
There is also a need to provide processed data on predicted regional climate
impacts, especially for developing countries.
Developing a Convention for environmental migrants
Environmental migrants currently do not fit into the agreed categories
of international refugee and migration law, even though a strong increase
in environmentally-induced migratory movements is anticipated. Under current
law, states have no specific obligations in relation to the treatment
of environmental migrants, nor are any other legal mechanisms in place
for their protection. A multilateral Convention for environmental migrants
should therefore be established.
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Handing
over the flagship report "World in Transition: Climate Change
as a Security Risk"
from
left to right: Prof. Dr. R. Schubert (WBGU chairman), Prof. Dr.
J. Schmid (member of the WBGU), Prof. Dr. H. J. Schellnhuber (WBGU
vice chair), Prof. Dr. M. Schulz-Baldes (WBGU secretary general),
Prof. Dr. S. Rahmstorf (member of the WBGU), State Secretary M.
Müller (BMU), Dr. R. Grießhammer (member of the WBGU),
Prof. Dr. D. Messner (member of the WBGU), Federal Minister H.
Wieczorek-Zeul (BMZ), State Minister G. Erler (AA), State Secretary
M. Thielen (BMBF).
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Please direct your queries to:
WBGU Secretariat
Reichpietschufer 60-62, 8th Floor
D-10785 Berlin
Germany
Tel. +49 30 263948 12
Fax +49 30 263948 50
Email: wbgu@wbgu.de
All press releases and reports can be downloaded
at http://www.wbgu.de.
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