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New Report submitted to the Federal Government
Global
transformation of energy systems is necessary and feasible
How to ensure future
energy security while protecting the climate and eradicating energy poverty
Berlin,
10 April 2003.Today, the German Advisory Council on Global Change
(WBGU) submits to federal ministers
Jürgen Trittin (Environment) and
Heidemarie Wieczorek-Zeul (Economic Cooperation) and to the State Secretary
Dr. Uwe Thomas (Research)
its new report "World in Transition:
Towards Sustainable Energy Systems". The report underscores the
urgent need to transform global energy systems so that the world’s
population has access to energy based on renewable sources. This is necessary
to protect the global climate and to liberate 2.4 billion people in developing
countries from energy poverty. Such an approach would also yield a peace
dividend by reducing dependence upon regionally concentrated oil reserves.
The scientists stress that such a transformation of energy systems is
feasible and fundable if rapid and resolute action is taken in the coming
two decades. To this end, they propose a roadmap for implementation.
Using
energy more efficiently
The
key precondition to turning energy systems towards sustainability is to
convert and use energy more efficiently. Here the goal should be by 2050
to produce three times the goods and services with the same amount of
energy worldwide. This requires, in particular, the establishment of international
standards for fossil-fuelled power plants, and the promotion of combined
heat and power production. For industrialized countries promising avenues
are to launch ecological financial reforms and establish mandatory labelling
for buildings, energy-intensive appliances and services.
Substantial
expansion of renewables
Promoting renewable resources is an essential element in this transformation.
The share of renewables in global energy production should therefore be
raised from 12.7 per cent today to 20 per cent by 2020, and finally to
more than 50 per cent by 2050. Those types of renewables which can only
be expanded to a limited extent (e.g. wind power, modern bioenergy) are
in many cases already available at competitive prices today. In contrast,
those technologies which can be expanded virtually without limit (e.g.
photovoltaics, solar thermal power generation) are still comparatively
expensive from the business management standpoint. Since the development
of non-solar forms of renewable energy will reach its limits over the
medium term it is essential to start now to comprehensively expand and
promote solar energy.
Future Energy supply systems will require forward-looking investment in
appropriate infrastructure. Priorities include improving the performance
of grid control systems, enhancing load management, expanding rapidly
dispatchable generating plants, extending networks to a global link and,
over the long term, establishing an infrastructure for hydrogen storage
and distribution.
Shaping
the transition
The
use of coal for energy production should be terminated within this century.
Nuclear power should be phased out worldwide by 2050. Among other aspects
of nuclear energy, illegal proliferation of nuclear material and the unresolved
issue of final storage pose intolerable risks. For a transition period,
intensified use of gas is advisable and storage of carbon in geological
formations is presumably necessary.
Focussing
North-South cooperation more strongly on sustainability
Overcoming energy poverty is key to improving living conditions in
developing countries and achieving internationally agreed development
goals. Indoor air pollution from the combustion of traditional biomass
causes serious health risks. Some 1.6 million people are dying every year
as a consequence – many more than the toll taken by malaria. Similarly,
the pollution of ambient air, notably in the cities of many developing
countries, has assumed extreme proportions in some instances.
To resolve these problems, international cooperation needs to focus more
strongly upon sustainable development principles. In the view of the Council,
an important measure in this context is to redirect assistance delivery
by the World Bank and regional development banks in favour of renewable
energy sources.
Exploiting
all available funding opportunities
The transformation of energy systems can be financed – provided
all available opportunities are exploited. In industrialized and transition
countries, subsidies for fossil fuels and nuclear power need to be removed
completely by 2020. To this end, the Council recommends negotiating a
Multilateral Energy Subsidies Agreement by 2008. At the same time private-sector
investment in sustainable energies needs to be promoted. Official development
assistance funding has to be increased substantially in order to support
the poorest countries. As a supplementary measure, the Council recommends
that OECD countries introduce user charges on international aviation from
2008 onwards.
Advancing
research and development
To master the technological challenges, substantial research and development
efforts will need to be undertaken. In industrialized countries, government
expenditure on research into renewables should be increased at least ten-fold
by 2020, through re-allocations from other areas. As a supporting measure,
the Council recommends the creation of a World Energy Research Coordination
Programme.
Maintaining
the momentum of the Bonn World Energy Conference
Turning energy systems towards sustainability on a global scale will
require capable institutions. The existing global energy policy institutions
should therefore be strengthened and expanded in a stepwise process. To
establish a common platform for action, the Council recommends the adoption
of a World Energy Charter. The World Conference for Renewable Energy proposed
by the German federal government, which is to take place in 2004 in Bonn,
provides an excellent opportunity to launch this process. Building on
this foundation, the establishment of an International Sustainable Energy
Agency warrants consideration by about 2010.
German
Advisory Council on Global Change (WBGU) breaks new ground
The Council’s new report makes an innovative contribution to
the debate. It is the first time that the two objectives of "climate
protection" and "eradicating energy poverty" are given
equal weight. The one objective is a matter of keeping global warming
within tolerable limits. This requires that industrialized countries reduce
their CO2 emissions by some 80 per cent by 2050. Owing to the major uncertainties
associated with the behaviour of the global climate system, this is a
minimum requirement. To meet the other objective, the entire population
of the world should be given access to modern forms of energy by 2020.
On this basis, the Council has elaborated an exemplary path for a global
transformation of energy systems towards sustainability, and has drawn
up a roadmap for implementation.
Please direct your queries to:
WBGU Secretariat
Reichpietschufer 60-62, 8th Floor
D-10785 Berlin
Germany
Tel. +49 30 263948 12
Fax +49 30 263948 50
Email: wbgu@wbgu.de
All press releases and reports can be downloaded
at http://www.wbgu.de.
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