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World
in Transition
Towards Sustainable Energy Systems
Summary
for Policy-Makers
German
Advisory Council on Global Change
Berlin, 2003
14
pages, ISBN 3-936191-02-6
The
Summary for Policy-Makers can be viewed and downloaded here,
or can be obtained through the Secretariat of the Council.
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Impressum
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SUMMARY
FOR POLICY-MAKERS |
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The first
section of this summary for policy-makers presents in brief the prime
concerns surrounding todays energy systems, while the second proposes
the criteria that need to be met to turn energy systems towards sustainability.
The third section, building upon an exemplary scenario, sets out a possible
path for transforming the global energy system within the 21st century;
this will require a substantial redirection of energy policies over
the coming decades. On that basis, the fourth section proposes a roadmap
with concrete goals and policy options for action by which to implement
this global transformation.
1
Why it is essential to transform energy systems
worldwide
The German
Advisory Council on Global Change (WBGU) illustrates in the present report
that it is essential to turn energy systems towards sustainability worldwide
both in order to protect the natural life-support systems on which
humanity depends, and to eradicate energy poverty in developing countries.
Nothing less than a fundamental transformation of energy systems will
be needed to return development trajectories to sustainable corridors.
A further important aspect is that such a global reconfiguration of energy
systems would promote peace by reducing dependency upon regionally concentrated
oil reserves.
1.1 The use of
fossil energy sources jeopardizes natural life-support systems
Today, 80
per cent of worldwide energy use is based on fossil energy sources, and
this share is rising. Burning these fuels releases emissions to the environment,
where they cause climatic changes, air pollution and human disease. The
effects of emissions can be local (in the case of grit, benzene or soot),
regional (aerosols, short-lived gases) or global (persistent greenhouse
gases). Global climate protection is the supreme challenge presenting
an urgent need to transform energy systems.
Emissions of persistent greenhouse gases above all carbon dioxide,
but also methane and nitrous oxide contributed substantially over
the past 100 years to a 0.6äC increase in the mean ground-level air temperature.
For the next 100 years, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
(IPCC) forecasts a rise in mean temperature ranging between 1.4 and 5.8äC,
depending upon humanitys behaviour and without taking climate protection
measures into consideration. The Council considers a mean global temperature
change of more than 2äC compared to pre-industrial levels to be intolerable.
The predicted shift in climatic regions, in combination with more frequent
weather extremes such as floods and drought, has the potential to impair
severely, for millions of people, the natural basis of human existence.
Developing countries are particularly threatened. Damage to sensitive
ecosystems is already evident today. The risk of irreversible ecosystem
damage grows in line with the level and rate of warming.
Besides carbon dioxide,the burning of fossil fuels generates benzene and
soot emissions with numerous damaging effects on health and ecosystems.
It also generates nitrogen oxides, hydrocarbons and carbon monoxide, which
promote the formation of ground-level ozone and reduce the self-purifying
capacity of the atmosphere. Nitrogen and sulphur oxides, as well as ammonia,
are converted chemically in the atmosphere and enter soils through acid
deposition. Present energy systems damage the natural environment in many
and diverse ways, jeopardize human health and exert massive influences
upon biogeochemical cycles.
1.2 Two billion people
lack access to modern forms of energy
Improving
access to advanced energy in developing countries is a fundamental contribution
to poverty reduction and key to attaining the United Nations Millennium
Development Goals. For some 2.4 billion people, notably in rural parts
of Asia and Africa, energy supply depends largely or entirely upon biomass
use (firewood, charcoal or dung) for cooking and heating. On average,
35 per cent of energy consumed in developing countries derives from biomass;
in parts of Africa this share reaches 90 per cent. According to the World
Health Organization, emissions from the burning of biomass and coal indoors
cause the death of 1.6 million people every year. This is substantially
more than the one million deaths caused by malaria. A transformation of
energy systems towards sustainability is therefore essential in order
to overcome development problems.
2
A corridor for sustainable energy policy: Guard rails for a global transformation
Sustainable
transformation paths are bounded by so called "guard rails".
The Council defines these guard rails as those levels of damage which
can only be crossed at intolerable cost, so that even short-term utility
gains cannot compensate for such damage (Box 1). For instance, if, in
the interests of short-term economic gains, the energy sector is transformed
too late, global warming will be driven to the point at which the costs
of inaction would be much higher over the long term due to the economic
and social upheaval that is then to be expected. Guard rails are not goals:
They are not desirable values or states, but minimum requirements that
need to be met if the principle of sustainability is to be adhered to.
3
Turning energy systems towards sustainability is feasible: A test run for
system transformation
The sustainability
of scenarios for energy futures can be tested against the guard rails
set out in the previous section. In principle, many developments are conceivable
that would turn todays worldwide energy systems towards sustainability.
Insofar, the scenario created in this report should be viewed as one example
(Fig. 1).

Figure
1
Transforming
the global energy mix: The exemplary path until 2050/2100.
Source: WBGU
Building
upon scenarios for the stabilization of CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere
at a maximum of 450 ppm, this report shows that the global transformation
of energy systems over the next 100 years is in principle technologically
and economically feasible.
The
exemplary path charted by the Council embraces four key components:
- Major
reduction in the use of fossil energy sources;
- Phase-out
of the use of nuclear energy;
- Substantial
development and expansion of new renewable energy sources, notably solar;
- Improvement
of energy productivity far beyond historical rates.
Analysis
of this path yields the following key findings:
- Worldwide
cooperation and approximation of living conditions facilitate rapid
technology development and dissemination. High economic growth can then,
in conjunction with a strong increase in energy productivity, lead to
sustainable energy supply.
- It will
only be possible to meet minimum climate protection requirements if
binding CO2 reduction requirements are in place.
- Energy
policy activities need to be supported by further measures to reduce
greenhouse gas emissions from other sectors (for instance nitrous oxide
and methane from agriculture) and to preserve natural carbon stocks.
- While
the exemplary path developed here is based upon a stabilization of atmospheric
CO2 concentrations at 450 ppm, due to uncertainties attaching to climate
system behaviour this can by no means be taken as a sufficient stabilization
level. The Council recommends retaining options by which to achieve
lower stabilization concentrations.
- Even
if climate protection goals are met, a fossil-nuclear path entails substantially
larger risks, as well as much higher environmental impacts. Moreover,
it is significantly more expensive over the medium to long term than
a path relying upon promoting renewables and improving energy efficiency,
mainly due to the costs of CO2 sequestration.
- Due to
the long time lags, the next 1020 years are the decisive window
of opportunity for reconfiguring energy systems. If this transformation
is initiated later, disproportionately high costs must be expected.
- The transformation
will only succeed if the transfer of capital and technology from industrialized
to developing countries is intensified. To this end, industrialized
countries will need to strengthen technology development significantly
in the fields of energy efficiency and renewable energy sources, for
instance by raising and redirecting research and development expenditure,
implementing market penetration strategies, providing price incentives
and developing appropriate infrastructure. This can reduce the initially
high costs of the new technologies and can accelerate attainment of
market maturity, thus in turn facilitating transfer to developing countries.
- Over
the short and medium term, it is essential to swiftly tap those renewable
energy sources which are already technologically manageable and relatively
cost-effective today. These are in particular wind and biomass. Over
the long term, the rising primary energy requirement can only be met
through vigorous utilization of solar energy this holds by far
the largest sustainable potential. To tap this potential in time, installed
capacity will need to grow ten-fold every decade now and over
the long term.
- The utilization
of fossil energy sources will continue to be necessary over the next
decades. Wherever possible, this needs to be done in such a fashion
that the efficiency potential is tapped and both the infrastructure
and generating technology can be converted readily to renewable sources.
In particular, the efficient use of gas, for instance in combined heat
and power generation and in fuel cells, can perform an important bridging
function on the path towards a hydrogen economy.
- A certain
volume of carbon sequestration in appropriate geological formations
(e.g. depleted oil and gas caverns) will be necessary as a transitional
technology during this century in order to remain within the climate
guard rails. For ecological reasons, the Council rejects use of the
oceans for carbon sequestration.
Box
1 :
Guard
rails for sustainable energy policy
Ecological
guard rails
Climate protection
A rate of temperature change exceeding 0.2°C per decade
and a mean global temperature rise of more than 2°C compared
to pre-industrial levels are intolerable parameters of global
climate change.
Sustainable land use
1020 per cent of the global land surface should be reserved
for nature conservation. Not more than 3 per cent should be used
for bioenergy crops or terrestrial CO2 sequestration. As a fundamental
matter of principle, natural ecosystems should not be converted
to bioenergy cultivation. Where conflicts arise between different
types of land use, food security must have priority.
Protection of rivers and their catchment areas
In the same vein as terrestrial areas, about 1020 per cent
of riverine ecosystems, including their catchment areas, should
be reserved for nature conservation. This is one reason why hydroelectricity
after necessary framework conditions have been met (investment
in research, institutions, capacity building etc.) can
only be expanded to a limited extent.
Protection of marine ecosystems
It is the view of the Council that the use of the oceans to sequester
carbon is not tolerable, because the ecological damage can be
major and knowledge about biological consequences is too fragmentary.
Prevention of atmospheric air pollution
Critical levels of air pollution are not tolerable. As a preliminary
quantitative guard rail, it could be determined that pollution
levels should nowhere be higher than they are today in the European
Union, even though the situation there is not yet satisfactory
for all types of pollutant. A final guard rail would need to be
defined and implemented by national environmental standards and
multilateral environmental agreements.
Socio-economic guard rails
Access to advanced energy for all
It is essential to ensure that everyone has access to advanced
energy. This involves ensuring access to electricity, and substituting
health-endangering biomass use by advanced fuels.
Meeting the individual minimum requirement for advanced energy
The
Council considers the following final energy quantities to be
the minimum requirement for elementary individual needs: By the
year 2020 at the latest, everyone should have at least 500 kWh
final energy per person and year and by 2050 at least 700 kWh.
By 2100 the level should reach 1,000 kWh.
Limiting the proportion of income expended for energy
Poor households should not need to spend more than one tenth of
their income to meet elementary individual energy requirements.
Minimum macroeconomic development
To meet the macroeconomic minimum per-capita energy requirement
(for energy services utilized indirectly) all countries should
be able to deploy a per-capita gross domestic product of at least
about US-$ 3000, in 1999 values.
Keeping risks within a normal range
A sustainable energy system needs to build upon technologies whose
operation remains within the normal range of environmental
risk. Nuclear energy fails to meet this requirement, particularly
because of its high accident risks and unresolved waste management,
but also because of the risks of proliferation and terrorism.
Preventing disease caused by energy use
Indoor air pollution resulting from the burning of biomass and
air pollution in towns and cities resulting from the use of fossil
energy sources causes severe health damage worldwide. The overall
health impact caused by this should, in all WHO regions, not exceed
0.5 per cent of the total health impact (measured in DALYs, disability
adjusted life years) in each region.
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4
Milestones on the WBGU transformation roadmap: Objectives, time frames
and policies
4.1 Protecting
natural life-support systems
To keep
global warming within tolerable limits, global carbon dioxide emissions
need to be reduced by at least 30 per cent from 1990 levels by the year
2050 (overview: Fig. 2). For industrialized countries, this means a reduction
by some 80 per cent, while the emissions of developing and newly industrializing
countries are allowed to rise by at most 30 per cent. Without a fundamental
reconfiguration of energy systems, emissions must be expected to double
or even quadruple in developing and newly industrializing countries over
that period. This is why in these countries, too, a rapid redirection
of energy production and utilization is essential. The focus of such activities
needs to be placed on promoting renewables and enhancing efficiency. In
view of the considerable uncertainties, e.g. regarding the behaviour of
the climate system, these emissions reduction goals are minimum requirements.

Figure
2
Overview
of the transformation roadmap proposed by the German Advisory Council
on Global Change (WBGU). CDM=Clean Development Mechanism, CHP=combined
heat and power, GDP=gross domestic product, GEF=Global Environment Facility,
IPSE=Intergovernmental Panel on Sustainable Energy, ISEA=International
Sustainable Energy Agency, MESA=Multilateral Energy Subsidization Agreement,
ODA=Official Development Assistance, OECD=Organisation for Economic Co-operation
and Development, WERCP=World Energy Research Coordination Programme
Source: WBGU
4.1.1 Improving
energy productivity
In order
to minimize resource consumption, global energy productivity (the ratio
of gross domestic product to energy input) needs to be improved by 1.4
per cent every year initially, and then by at least 1.6 per cent as soon
as possible. At that rate, energy productivity would treble by 2050 from
1990 levels. Moreover, minimum efficiencies of more than 60 per cent should
be aimed at by 2050 for large fossil-fuelled power plants. To this end,
the Council recommends
- establishing
international standards prescribing minimum efficiencies for fossil-fuelled
power plants in a stepwise process from 2005 onwards, based on the corresponding
European Union (EU) directive.
- generating,
by 2012, 20 per cent of electricity in the EU through combined heat
and power (CHP) production. There is a particular need to harness the
potential offered by distributed production. To promote this, the German
federal government should argue within the EU for the swift setting
of binding national CHP quotas.
- initiating
ecological financial reforms as a key tool for creating incentives for
more efficiency. This includes measures to internalize external costs
(e.g. CO2 taxation, emissions trading) and the removal of subsidies
for fossil and nuclear energy.
- improving
the information provided to end users in order to promote energy efficiency,
e.g. by means of mandatory labelling for all energy-intensive goods,
buildings and services. In the case of goods traded internationally,
cross-national harmonization of efficiency standards and labels is recommendable.
- exploiting
the major efficiency potentials in the use of energy for heating and
cooling through instruments of regulatory law targeting the primary
energy requirement of buildings.
4.1.2
Expanding renewables substantially
The proportion
of renewable energies in the global energy mix should be raised from its
current level of 12.7 per cent to 20 per cent by 2020, with the long-term
goal of more than 50 per cent by 2050. Ecological financial reforms will
make fossil and nuclear sources more expensive and will thus reduce their
share in the global energy mix. Consequently, the proportion of renewables
will rise. As this rise will remain well below the envisaged increase
to 20 per cent and, respectively, 50 per cent, the Council recommends
that renewables be expanded actively. In particular, it recommends
- that
countries agree upon national renewable energy quotas. In order to minimize
costs within such a scheme, a worldwide system of internationally tradable
renewable energy credits should be aimed at by 2030. Its flexibility
notwithstanding, such a system should commit each country to meet a
substantial part of its quota through domestic generation.
- continuing
and broadening market penetration strategies (e.g. subsidy schemes over
limited periods, guaranteed feed-in tariffs, renewable energy quota
schemes). Until significant market volume has been achieved, supply
payment schemes under which payments decline over time are amongst the
particularly expedient options. When a sufficiently large market volume
of individual energy sources has been reached, assistance should be
transformed into a system of tradable renewable energy credits or green
energy certificates.
- upgrading
energy systems to permit the large-scale deployment of fluctuating renewable
sources. This includes in particular enhancing grid control, implementing
appropriate control strategies for distributed generators, upgrading
grids to permit strong penetration by distributed generators as well
as expanding grids to form a global link. This should be followed later
by the establishment of an infrastructure for hydrogen storage and distribution,
using natural gas as a bridging technology.
- providing
vigorous support to disseminate and further develop the technologies
involved in solar and energy-efficient construction.
- building
and strengthening human-resource and institutional capacities in developing
countries and intensifying technology transfer in order to improve the
framework conditions for the establishment of sustainable energy systems.
- setting
within export credit systems, from 2005 onwards, progressive minimum
requirements for the permissible carbon intensity of energy production
projects.
4.1.3
Phasing out nuclear power
No new nuclear
power plants should be given planning permission. The use of nuclear power
should be terminated worldwide by 2050. To this end, the Council recommends
- seeking
to launch international negotiations on the phase-out of nuclear power.
This process could begin with an amendment to the statutes of the International
Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).
- establishing
by 2005 new, stricter IAEA safety standards for all sites at which nuclear
material is stored, as well as expanded monitoring and action-taking
competencies of the IAEA in the field of safeguards relating to terrorism
and proliferation.
4.2 Eradicating
energy poverty and seeking minimum levels of supply worldwide
Access to
advanced energy is a vital element for poverty reduction and development.
The Council therefore recommends adopting as an international goal that
access to advanced energy is safeguarded for the entire world population
from 2020, and that, from that time onwards, all individuals have access
to at least 500 kWh per person and year to meet elementary final energy
requirements (Fig. 2). In this endeavour, care needs to be taken that
socio-economic disparities are reduced in connection with all measures
seeking to transform energy systems. The proportion of household income
spent on energy should not exceed 10 per cent. Access to advanced energy
is also a key contribution to achieving the United Nations Millennium
Development Goals.
4.2.1
Focussing international cooperation on sustainable development
Implementing
new World Bank policy in assistance delivery practice
The Council
takes the view that the World Bank, which supports countries expanding
their energy systems, should also promote sustainable energy in order
to facilitate the leapfrogging of unsustainable development stages. In
efforts to promote the reconfiguration of energy systems, the World Bank
has not yet moved sufficiently from the conceptual to the operational
level. An urgent need thus remains to redirect its assistance delivery
procedures, which until now have predominantly financed fossil fuels according
to the least-cost principle. The Council recommends that
- the new
assistance delivery approach of the World Bank is implemented in practice,
starting immediately. The German federal government should use its membership
on the Board of Governors of the World Bank to work towards this.
Integrating
sustainable energy supply within poverty reduction strategies
In late
1999, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank began focussing
their policies vis-à-vis least developed countries primarily on
poverty reduction. Poverty Reduction Strategy Papers (PRSPs) serve to
steer the medium-term development of countries and provide a basis for
eliciting international support. The Council recommends
- integrating
sustainable energy supply within PRSP processes in order to raise the
profile of energy-related issues in development cooperation.
Strengthening
the role of regional development banks
The role
of regional development banks should be strengthened. These have good
regional connections and more intimate knowledge of local problems than
global institutions do. The Council recommends that
- Germany,
in connection with its involvement in these banks and within the EU
context, works towards the promotion of energy supply in developingcountries
through the regional development funds;
- the
EU makes targeted use of the European Development Fund to promote renewables
in the ACP (African, Caribbean, Pacific) states.
4.2.2 Strengthening
the capabilities of developing countries
Promoting
economic and social development in low-income countries
To turn energy systems towards sustainability, a minimum degree of economic
development is a precondition. Many countries fall far short of the per-capita
income required for this. The Council therefore recommends not only intensifying
development cooperation in the field of basic services and sustainable
energy supply, but also intensifying cooperation with low-income countries
in particular, in both quantitative and qualitative terms. Furthermore,
within the context of the WTO Development Round, improved
access for goods from all low-income countries to the markets of industrialized
and newly industrializing countries should be urged.
Launching
new debt relief initiatives
In general,
heavily indebted developing countries have little scope to cope with price
fluctuations on world energy markets. Their ability to finance improvements
to the efficiency of their energy supply systems and to advance the deployment
of renewable energy technologies is similarly limited. To embark on transformation,
wide-ranging debt relief is needed. The Council recommends that
- the German
federal government argues for new debt relief initiatives within the
G7/G8 context.
4.2.3 Combining
regulatory and private-sector elements
It is essential
to take measures on both the supply and demand side in order to improve
access to advanced low-emission energy forms and to renewable energy sources,
and to improve the energy efficiency in developing, newly industrializing
and transition countries.
Supply
side: Combining liberalization and privatization with regulatory interventions
On the supply
side, privatization and liberalization need to be combined with regulatory
interventions undertaken by the state. The mix of these three spheres
will need to vary depending upon the specific circumstances of a region.
Liberalization and privatization require an attractive environment for
private-sector investors and the tapping of international sources of capital.
Stronger state intervention requires the setting of standards, and also
an expansion of public-private partnerships, possibly supported by bilateral
and multilateral development cooperation activities.
Demand
side: Increasing the purchasing power of the poor
On the
demand side, the aim must be to increase purchasing power in relation
to energy, particularly of the poor. This can be done by target-group
specific subsidies, or by expanding micro-finance systems. To also increase
the willingness to use energy more sustainably, measures taken on the
demand side need to give consideration to culture-specific and gender-specific
framework conditions.
4.3 Mobilizing financial
resources for the global transformation of energy systems
To finance
the global transformation of energy systems towards sustainability, there
is an urgent need to mobilize additional financial resources, as well
as to create new transfer mechanisms or strengthen existing ones in order
to support economically weaker countries in this transformation process.
The Council welcomes the programme on Sustainable energy for development
geared to establishing strategic partnerships which the German government
announced at the World Summit on Sustainable Development. Over the next
five years, a total of Euro 1000 million will be budgeted for this programme.
Mobilizing
private-sector capital
To mobilize
private-sector capital for the global transformation of energy systems,
the Council recommends
- facilitating
access to developing country markets for small and medium-sized suppliers
of renewable energy technologies within the context of public-private
partnerships.
- establishing
by 2010 a German and, if possible, EU standard for the Clean Development
Mechanism. This standard should permit exclusively, with exceptions
to be substantiated in each case, projects that promote renewables (excluding
large hydroelectric dams due to currently unresolved sustainability
problems), improve the energy efficiency of existing facilities or engage
in demand-side management.
Boosting
development cooperation funding
At 0.27
per cent of gross domestic product (GDP) in 2001, German official development
assistance (ODA) funding is far from the internationally agreed target
of 0.7 per cent. However, Germany has committed itself to increasing ODA
funding to a level of 0.33 per cent of GDP by 2006. Even an increase of
to some 1 per cent of GDP would be commensurate to the severity of the
problems prevailing. The Council recommends
- as a
matter of urgency, raising ODA funding beyond the level of 0.33 per
cent announced for 2006, and proposes allocating, as a first step, at
least 0.5 per cent of GDP by 2010.
Harnessing
innovative financing tools
To implement
the global transformation of energy systems, it will be essential to tap
new sources of finance. Specially, the potential of raising charges for
the use of global commons deserves examination. The Council recommends
- raising
from 2008 onwards an emissions-based user charge on international aviation,
provided that this sector is not yet subject by then to international
emissions reduction commitments.
Strengthening
the Global Environment Facility as an international financing institution
The Global
Environment Facility (GEF), operated jointly by UNDP, UNEP and the World
Bank, should be used as a catalyst for global environmental protection
measures. The Council recommends
- concentrating
by 2005 the financial assistance provided for efficiency technologies
and renewable resources in a newly created GEF "window for sustainable
energy systems". In order to be able to give greater consideration
to development policy aspects in the deployment of funds, a simplification
of the incremental costs approach should be considered. With a view
to the high levels of funding required to promote the global transformation
of energy systems, GEF resources need to be expanded considerably.
4.4 Using model
projects for strategic leverage, and engaging in energy partnerships
Sending
out signals through model projects
The Council
argues in favour of using model projects for the introduction of new renewables
on a large scale to deliver strategic leverage for a global transformation
of energy systems towards sustainability. Such model projects could have
global knock-on effects. They would showcase how technology leaps can
be implemented in energy projects. The Council recommends initiating the
following model projects:
- A strategic
energy partnership between the European Union and North Africa, integrating
into European power supply the potential of solar energy use in a manner
profitable for both sides;
- Developing
the infrastructure needed to substitute traditional biomass use by biogenic
bottled gas;
- Energy-efficient
buildings in the low-cost sector, piloted by South African townships;
- Improving
the power quality in weak electric grids in rural African regions;
- "1
million huts electrification programme" for developing countries,
generating the necessary internal dynamics for off-grid rural electrification.
Forming
strategic partnerships to turn energy systems towards sustainability
Existing
or emergent policy initiatives promoting a global transformation of energy
systems towards sustainability provide a framework for action. The Council
recommends that, in addition to the World Conference for Renewable Energy
due to take place in 2004, the following policy processes in particular
are used as catalysts to promote this transformation:
- The international
initiatives adopted at the World Summit on Sustainable Development
Energy Initiative for Poverty Eradication and Sustainable Development,
Global Village Energy Partnership,
Global Network on Energy for Sustainable Development.
- The economic
partnership agreement currently being negotiated between the EU and
the ACP states.
4.5 Advancing
research and development
Turning
energy systems towards sustainability is a major technological and social
challenge on a scale comparable to that of a new industrial revolution.
For it to succeed, a major research and development effort is necessary..
This concerns renewable energy sources, infrastructure, end-use efficiency
technologies as well as the provision of knowledge on the conservation
and expansion of natural carbon stocks and sinks. The social sciences
also need to contribute, by analysing the individual and institutional
barriers to this transformation process and developing strategies to overcome
these barriers.
However,
for many years now expenditure for research and development in the energy
sector has been declining. At present, across the OECD only some 0.5 per
cent of turnover in the energy sector is devoted to research and development
activities, and the percentage is dropping. Only if there is sustained,
high investment in research and development can there be a prospect of
renewable-energy technologies and efficiency-enhancing measures coming
into widespread use over the medium and long term at low cost. The Council
recommends
- increasing
at least ten-fold, above all through re-allocation of resources from
other areas, by 2020 the direct state expenditure in industrialized
countries for research and development in the energy sector from its
current level of about US-$ 1300 million annually (average across the
OECD for the 19901995 period). The focus needs to be shifted rapidly
away from fossil and nuclear energy towards renewables and efficiency.
- establishing
within the UN system a World Energy Research Coordination Programme
(WERCP) to draw together the various strands of national-level energy
research activities, in analogy to the World Climate Research Programme.
4.6 Drawing together
and strengthening global energy policy institutions
Establishing
coordinating bodies and negotiating a World Energy Charter
To promote
a global transformation of energy systems towards sustainability, it is
essential to coordinate activities at global level and consequently to
draw together international institutions and actors. The Council recommends
strengthening and expanding the institutional architecture of global energy
policy in a stepwise process, building upon existing organizations:
- As a
first step, a World Energy Charter should be negotiated at the planned
World Conference for Renewable Energy to be held in Germany in 2004.
This should contain the key elements of sustainable, global energy policy
and provide a joint basis for action at global level.
- Moreover,
this conference should decide upon or better still establish
a Global Ministerial Forum for Sustainable Energy responsible
for coordinating and determining the strategic direction of the relevant
actors and programmes.
- In parallel,
a Multilateral Energy Subsidies Agreement (MESA) should be negotiated
by 2008. This agreement could provide for the stepwise removal of subsidies
for fossil and nuclear energy, and could establish rules for subsidizing
renewable energy and energy efficiency technologies.
- At least
the OECD states should commit themselves to national renewable energy
quotas of at least 20 per cent by 2015. It would be important in this
context to agree to negotiate the globalization and flexibilization
of this system, such negotiations leading by 2030 at the latest to a
worldwide system of tradable renewable energy credits.
- In support
of these activities, a group of like-minded, advanced states should
adopt a pioneering role on the path towards sustainable energy policies.
The European Union would be a suitable candidate for such a leadership
role.
- Building
upon the steps above, the institutional foundations of sustainable energy
policy could be further strengthened by concentrating competencies at
global level. To this end, the role of the Ministerial Forum could be
further expanded.
- Using
the experience gained until that date, by about 2010 the establishment
of an International Sustainable Energy Agency (ISEA) should be examined.
Enhancing
policy advice at the international level
It is important that the political implementation of a global transformation
of energy systems towards sustainability receives continuous support through
independent scientific input, as is currently the case in climate protection
policy. To this end, the Council recommends
- establishing
an Intergovernmental Panel on Sustainable Energy (IPSE) charged with
analysing and evaluating global energy trends and identifying options
for action.
5 Conclusion:
Political action is needed now
To protect
natural life-support systems and eradicate energy poverty alike, there
is an urgent need to transform energy systems. This transformation will
be feasible without severe adverse effects upon societal and economic
systems if policy-makers grasp the opportunity to shape this process over
the next two decades. The intended effects can only be expected to emerge
after a certain time lag. This lag makes swift action all the more important.
The costs of inaction would be much higher over the long term than the
costs of initiating this transformation. Every delay will make it more
difficult to change course.
The
direction of transformation is clear: The energy efficiency must be increased,
and massive support for renewables must be provided. It will be particularly
important in this endeavour to reduce dependency on fossil fuels. The
long-term objective is to break the ground for a solar age.
In
the view of the Council, the transformation is feasible. It is also financeable
if, in addition to intensified use of existing mechanisms (e.g. GEF, ODA,
World Bank and regional development bank loans) and enhanced incentives
for private-sector investors (e.g. through public-private partnerships),
innovative financing avenues (such as user charges for global commons)
are pursued. The present report highlights the key opportunities for steering
energy systems towards sustainability, guided by a transformation roadmap.
For
the worldwide transformation of energy systems to succeed, it will need
to be shaped in a stepwise and dynamic manner, for no one can predict
today with sufficient certainty the technological, economic and social
developments over the next 50100 years. Long-term energy policy
is also a searching process. It is the task of policy-makers to rise to
this challenge. The World Conference for Renewable Energy announced by
the German chancellor at the Johannesburg World Summit on Sustainable
Development offers an excellent opportunity to take action.
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IMPRESSUM
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German
Advisory Council on Global Change - WBGU
Secretariat
Reichpietschufer 60-62, 8. OG
D-10785 Berlin
phone: 030 263948 0
fax: 030 263948 50
Email: wbgu@wbgu.de
Website: http://www.wbgu.de
Translation:
Christopher Hay, Darmstadt
The
summary can be downloaded through the Internet from the website
http://www.wbgu.de/wbgu_jg2003_kurz_engl.html.
© 2003, WBGU
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