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| Global Change Portal |
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PRESS RELEASE
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In 1997 alone, there were more than 13 million refugees worldwide. In the current year, millions of people are again exposed to floods, drought or storms. Due to the growing number of vulnerable people, geophysical risks such as earthquakes or meteorites and technological risks are also posing increasing hazards. These risks are threatening the natural basis of human existence. Their sources include climate change, the loss of biological diversity, soil degradation, burgeoning urbanization, population growth and technological developments. To keep these risks to the international community as small as possible, the scientists recommend cross-cutting approaches for international policies. These include a worldwide alignment of liability law, the creation of environmental liability funds and the establishment of a "United Nations Risk Assessment Panel". Nevertheless, the Council also stresses that, as a matter of principle, political action must tackle issues as closely as possible to the sources of risks. Individual governments or the international community should only step in when insurance schemes or environmental liability funds are ineffective. Finally, the scientists stress the need to improve research promotion and to ensure that basic research free of vested interests can be pursued. Structuring global risk policy according to risk classes Given the great variety of possible specific risks, the Council takes the view that there can be no uniform risk prevention strategy. On the other hand, it is not practicable to require a separate strategy for each conceivable risk. This would paralyse societal development, considering that future development opportunities are inconceivable without a preparedness to take risks. For these reasons, the Council has defined six classes of risk and has formulated a framework strategy for each class. The new risk classes Cyclops risk class Risks of the Cyclops class include natural disasters such as floods, drought or volcanic eruptions and epidemics or cancerogenic substances in low doses, but also the possible shutdown of the Gulf Stream due to anthropogenic climate change. The probability of occurrence is largely unknown, but the possible damage is quantifiable. An overarching strategy for this class of risk is to intensify research and monitoring in order to be able to better estimate in future the probability of occurrence and the possible damage. Capabilities of affected parties to mitigate risks and international emergency preparedness arrangements also should be improved. Here a "UN Risk Assessment Panel" would be a particularly suitable response. In classical mythology, the Cyclopes were one-eyed giants. With only one eye, only one side of reality can be perceived. Pythia risk class A further class of risk was named after the blind seeress of the Delphic Oracle, Pythia. Pythia's prophesies, while indicating that a possibly severe danger was on the horizon, left the precise circumstances in the dark, so that Pythia's answers ultimately remained unclear. In this risk class, both the possible damage and the probability of its occurrence are uncertain. Examples of Pythia class risks include genetic engineering interventions and the release of transgenic plants.In many cases, fund solutions are suitable for this class of risk, as it is scarcely insurable and the level of damage can assume global proportions. Above all, the Pythia class of risk calls for improving knowledge through basic research. The Council further recommends a strategy of limiting the introduction to the environment of persistent substances and setting up monitoring systems. Damocles risk class In this class, the possible damage can be very high, but the probability that it occurs is very low. In addition to meteorite impacts, many large-scale technologies can be assigned to this class of risk, such as major chemical works, mega-dams or nuclear power plants. For these risks, the Council recommends a three-pronged strategy: initially reducing the disaster potential through research and technical measures, then strengthening the resilience or robustness of the system against surprise and finally establishing effective emergency management procedures. Damocles had to take a meal at a banquet while sitting under a sword hanging on a thread. For Damocles, opportunity and risk were closely linked. Pandora risk class The prime concern in the Pandora's Box risk class is the global dispersal of chemical substances and their accumulation in organisms. In many cases, the consequences of these risks are still unknown or there are at best assumptions concerning their possible damaging effects. Examples of this risk class include the pesticide DDT orendocrine disruptors. Here the Council recommends developing substitute substances, restricting the application of persistent substances with unknown risk potential to manageable geographical and temporal scales, and spreading risk thinly by increasing the diversity of processes applied and substances used. Pandora's box contained evils that could do no harm as long as the box remained closed. As soon as it was opened, the evils dispersed throughout the world. Cassandra risk class In the Cassandra risk class, a relatively long period elapses between the causation and occurrence of harm. The long-term consequences of impending global climate change must be assigned to this risk class, as must the destabilization of terrestrial ecosystems due to the human induced change of biogeochemical cycles.. As a strategy to counter this class of risks, the Council recommends strengthening the responsibility of the international community for future generations through collective self-commitments and through promoting global institutions with a long-term perspective, such as the proposed "UN Risk Assessment Panel". This further involves informing the public about the consequences of inaction. To reduce these risks, emissions limits and the development of substitutes are suitable, but also tradable emission permits. Cassandra, a Trojan seeress, predicted defeat at the hands of the Greek, but was not taken seriously by her people. Nobody was willing to face the still distant threat. Medusa risk class The Medusa risk class is a special case -- here the public perceives hazards as being much larger than they really are. An example of this is the concern surrounding the cancerogenic effect of ionizing or electromagnetic radiation in low concentrations, which cannot be statistically proven. Here the Council sees a need to build more confidence and improve knowledge in order to remove the remaining uncertainties, where possible. Ultimately, the affected people must decide themselves when weighing risks to what extent they give greater weight to the often poorly founded fears in the general public than to the proven damage potentials. In classical mythology, Medusa was one of three cruel Gorgon sisters, whose sight alone made people turn into stone. Some novel phenomena have an effect on modern people in a way similar to that in which the Gorgons, as purely imaginary figures of fable, struck fear and terror in the hearts of the ancient Greeks. Cross-cutting tools of risk policy Aligning liability law worldwide The scientists take the view that sustainability is not so much a definable target. It is rather an obligation for the people living today to create structures that place a society in a position to recognize newly arising risks in time and to trigger adjustment reactions. Sustainable societies need to be innovative and learning, and must have incentives to identify and handle risks with a precautionary approach. Beside the promotion of basic research, this above all calls for the enforcement of the principle of liability. Liability is the pivotal strategy for all risks that are insurable. This necessitates an international alignment of liability law in order to prevent risk generators from floating off into 'liability oases'. If the risk is not insurable, then environmental liability funds need to be considered. Securing a minimum of basic research The scientists further note that the high standards found in Germany in research on global risks, from technology assessment through to global environmental systems analysis, can only be maintained or raised by means of steady, reliable promotion. The management of still unknown risks presents particular difficulties: Here it is not possible to expand knowledge on such global risks in a clearly defined, targeted manner. Sensitivity for still unknown risks can only emerge where the reservoir of knowledge is continuously replenished and expanded through broad basic research that is not constrained by a need for direct exploitation of research results. Such research can make those risks visible that are currently still unknown. Ensuring diversity in risk research The Council further notes that research thrives on diversity and competition: It would be a dangerous illusion to assume that basic research can be made 'leaner' through rigidly avoiding duplication and parallel efforts. What is rather called for is a diversity of perspectives in order to be able to examine with due care the full range of possible risks. Establishing a UN Risk Assessment Panel In order to enhance the capacity of the international community to handle the risks of global change, the Council recommends setting up a "Risk Assessment Panel" at the United Nations, possibly subordinated to the UN Environment Programme (UNEP). This should be charged with improving the early warning and monitoring of environmental risks, expanding and making available worldwide the knowledge on these risks and contributing to the development of assessment techniques. Moreover, the Panel should serve as an interface between environment and development organizations, industry federations and the political arena where submissions of NGOs are permitted and can be scientifically assessed. A further important task would be to provide information to the general public. Promoting poverty alleviation The Council stresses that effective risk prevention policies must also tackle the amplifiers of global risks. Combating poverty through self-help is an important element of such a precautionary policy, as it aims not only at broad impacts, but also at structural reform in state and society. The propensity of global risks to cause harm can thus be significantly reduced. Reducing susceptibility to risk Both the knowledge of the risks of global change and the coping capacity to effectively handle risks are extremely unevenly distributed across the globe. The Council sees such global disparities above all in detection and assessment capacities, in management competence and in the susceptibility to the risks of global change. There is a major discrepancy between causation and affectedness -- it is above all the developing countries that will be affected by the consequences of risks. Many developing countries have inadequate risk management capabilities, which hampers an effective and rapid reaction by the international community. The Council has thus repeatedly recommended a significant increase in the public funding provided for development cooperation. Safeguarding public participation in critical siting decisions At the international level, the Council recommends supporting a human right to a healthy environment. In this context, people should have a right to know about environmentally relevant projects, a right to participate in decisions on such projects and access to adequate means of legal recourse. In some states, more participation of the public in particularly critical siting decisions and generally more participation in the introduction or continued use of controversial technologies would be desirable. This would render it possible to make adaptations that do greater justice to the perceptions of the people before new technologies are actually introduced. Strategic risk containment The scientists note that global risk prevention policies need to include a 'risk containment' element. In many cases the impacts of severe global risks are not yet fully understood, but already require political action. Here political decisions should be taken in a 'graduated' approach on the basis of the available knowledge, refining the chosen strategies as and when improved knowledge becomes available. A model of such an approach is already given by the work of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which advises the international community on the scientific issues of global climate change.
Please direct your queries to: WBGU Secretariat Tel. +49 30 263948 12 All press releases and reports can be downloaded at http://www.wbgu.de. |
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