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German Advisory Council on Global Change - WBGU |
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| . | SUMMARY OF THE ANNUAL REPORT 1997 |
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World in Transition: WaysTowards
Sustainable Management of Freshwater Resources
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| . | CONTENTS OF THE SUMMARY |
Essential foundations for analyzing the
global water crisis
Impacts of global change syndromes on
the water crisis
Significance of the regional freshwater
crisis
The Green Revolution Syndrome
The Aral Sea Syndrome
The Favela Syndrome
Key issues in the freshwater crisis
Ways out of the global water crisis
Recommendations to the Federal Government
The Crash Barriers
International regimes and international
law
Foreign policy, foreign trade policy and
development cooperation
Financing aspects
International research collaboration
| . | SUMMARY |
Never have I held back the
waters of the Nile,
never have I barred the water its way,
never have I dirtied the Nile.
Pharaonic Inscription
in the Valley of Kings (Rameses III)
Introduction
Water resource management
-- the harvesting, distribution, utilization, purification and
control of water -- has shaped the history of human civilizations
to a major and permanent degree. Management of water resources
is also one of the greatest challenges facing the present generation.
Today, around 2 billion people have no access to clean drinking
water and sanitation. Only 5% of the worlds wastewater is treated
or purified. As a result, one person in two in the developing
countries suffers from a water-related disease, and 5 million
people die each year after drinking contaminated or infested water.
Freshwater is the most important factor limiting food production,
with agriculture already accounting for 70% of global water use.
Worldwide, as many as 40,000 dams are in operation to secure and
increase the supply of water, with a new dam being added daily.
The total volume stored in reservoirs is five times that found
in all the worlds rivers. International conflicts are expected
to arise from the growing scarcity of this crucial resource in
many parts of the world. Referring to Ethiopias plans for dam
projects on the Blue Nile, President Sadat, the former Egyptian
president, once threatened that Anyone who plays with the waters
of the Nile is declaring war on us!
The dimensions and implications of todays freshwater problems,
the source of a potential major crisis of global society and the
environment, have prompted the Council to focus this years Annual
Report on this burning issue. The Council analyzes and evaluates
the total complex on the basis of facts and interrelationships,
describing in detail the available instruments for freshwater
management and outlining ways to prevent a global crisis from
unfolding. The solutions put forward by the Council are based
on two elements, namely a model and a strategy for the future
management of water resources. The first key element is generated
from the Councils crash barrier model, which is an attempt to
resolve the dilemma between social, environmental and economic
goals by setting clear priorities. A robust paradigm for the sound
management of freshwater resources is generated in the process.
The guiding principle developed by the Council can be summarized
as follows: achieve the greatest possible efficiency while taking
into consideration the imperatives of equity and sustainability.
This principle takes account of the fact that water, like no other
environmental asset within the global commons, is both a scarce
and a crucially important resource. Water is not only a commodity,
but also a foodstuff. Its essential properties define the sociocultural
and ecological framework and the non-sustainable limits (the crash
barriers) within which water must be used efficiently in order
to optimize the general welfare of humans everywhere. The very
scarcity of water resources requires, on the other hand, that
within the crash barrier there are as few obstacles as possible
to an efficient search for beneficial freshwater use. However,
efficiency can only be achieved if appropriate institutional,
technical and educational conditions are met.
From this paradigm, the Council develops ways to solve the water
crisis and addresses these to specific policy and research fields.
The second key element therefore involves a global strategy for
putting this paradigm into practice. The strategy is sub-divided
into three components: creating an international consensus, instituting
a World Water Charter and drawing up an international Plan of
Action against the freshwater crisis.
Essential foundations for analyzing the global water crisis
Biological and physical
foundations
A description of the natural state serves as the basis for further
analyses. The first step is to describe the various freshwater
habitats and the threats to limnetic biodiversity. This is followed
by a description of the abiotic factors of key importance for
the hydrological cycle. Such a description must take account of
the interactions which occur between the atmosphere and vegetation.
In what ways can key elements of the water balance and the hydrological
cycle be altered by climate change? To answer this question, the
Council presents an analysis in which characteristics of the hydrological
cycle under present climatic conditions are compared to those
in a simulated climate with CO 2
doubling (concentrations equivalent to twice present-day levels).
Here, the WBGU draws on calculations made with the ECHAM/OPYC
coupled atmosphere-ocean model developed by the German Climate
Computing Centre (DKRZ) and the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology
(MPI). Simulations with the model show that more precipitation
falls on land masses in a warmer climate, especially at high latitudes
and in parts of the tropics and subtropics, while other regions
have less rain. The latter include large areas of Brazil, Southwest
Africa and West and North Australia. Human-induced climate changes
will enhance the hydrological cycle as a whole, although this
will be bound up with substantial regional variances. In effect,
this means that there will be losers and winners.
The Council has predicted
future trends in global water withdrawals by agriculture, industry
and private households in a scenario, the basic elements of which
were developed at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
and the Environmental Research Center at the University of Kassel.
These computations are based on the future development of core
trends relating to water, such as variations in water supply as
a result of climate change, consumption levels in relation to
demographic and economic trends, and the efficiency of water use.
Water prices, cultural influences and institutional conditions
for water withdrawals were not taken into consideration. The predicted
figures show that total water withdrawals by agriculture will
increase by 18% in the thirty-year period between 1995 and 2025.
Despite this increase, the proportion of agricultural withdrawals
in relation to the total global figure falls to 56%, almost one
fifth less than 1995. This decline is attributed to water withdrawals
by industry, which will treble by the year 2025, i.e. at a rate
much faster than population growth. Household water consumption
will increase substantially, especially in Africa and Asia, but
falls are expected in Europe and Latin America.
Before environmental and
social crash barriers can be defined for water quality, monitoring
must be carried out as comprehensively as possible. However, current
data on water quality are distributed very unevenly in geographical
terms. Human impacts on water quality are impairing the natural
and cultural functions of water, primarily through direct interference
by agriculture and pollutant loads emanating from point and non-point
sources in settlements, the small business sector, agriculture
and industry. Too little is known about the behavior of substances
that enter water through human activities, about their decomposition
and conversion, and about the impacts they have on ecosystems
and humans. The most important factors influencing global water
quality include acidification, eutrophication, salinization, and
pollution caused by organic and inorganic trace compounds (pesticides
and heavy metals, for example). Quality standards such as those
governing agricultural and industrial uses have yet to be defined
for many other types of use. Those standards already in operation
tend to vary considerably from one country to the next, one example
being drinking water, for which the highest quality criteria must,
of course, apply. Setting limits can provide only relative safeguards
against damage to health. If water stress levels are to be kept
below the critical threshold, quality targets must be defined
on the basis of expert knowledge, and appropriate efforts made
to meet such targets.
The greater part of the
Annual Report addresses problems that arise from shortages or
the poor quality of water resources. However, too much water can
also lead to major problems and even disasters. Floods are the
natural disasters which cause the greatest economic damage worldwide,
often with great loss of human lives. The Council examines above
all the mechanisms by which floods originate, how global change
influences the incidence and severity of floods, and how the risk
of floods can best be mitigated. The next Annual Report produced
by the Council will focus in detail on risks and risk management.
Impacts of global change syndromes on the water crisis
In its various Reports to
date, the Council developed a concept for the holistic analysis
of global environmental change (WBGU, 1993.1996). This approach
enables the most important global environmental problems to be
described in the form of 16 clinical profiles or syndromes afflicting
the Earth System. The Council now applies this systems approach
to the crisis of freshwater resources. Of these 16 syndromes,
the Council has selected three that are particularly relevant
to water and which therefore require detailed study: the Green
Revolution, Aral Sea and Favela Syndromes.
Analysis centers, firstly, on the role played by water within
the Global Network of Interrelationships, a method developed by
the Council for organizing the complex interactions within global
change into a form suitable for further analysis. By applying
this method to global water problems, it is possible to examine
how typical trends in the hydrosphere (such as freshwater scarcity,
groundwater depletion or changes in the local water balance) are
linked to other trends of global change. The interactions are
described and graphically portrayed as a water-centred global
network of interrelationships.
The regional importance
of the freshwater crisis is emphasized further by the criticality
index developed by the Council. This approach involves assessing
the water crisis using a composite indicator that combines natural
water stocks and the drain on water resources caused by humans,
while also taking societys problem-solving capacity into consideration.
On the basis of detailed scenarios for water supply and water
withdrawals, which were developed and computed at the level of
subnational catchments by the Center for Environmental Systems
Research at the University of Kassel, and linked to national problem-solving
capacities by the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research,
the Council derives world maps that show the present hot spots
of the freshwater crisis and other relevant aspects. With the
help of additional scenarios for population trends, a climate
scenario developed by the MPI in Hamburg and assumptions about
future water withdrawals, the regions which will face severe problems
in the future are identified and presented.
The Green Revolution Syndrome
circumscribes the extensive, centrally planned and rapid modernization
of agriculture with imported, non-adapted agricultural technology,
whereby negative side-effects on geographical conditions of production
and the social structure can occur, and indeed are put up with.
The successes of the Green Revolution are primarily achieved in
irrigated agriculture; within the space of a few years, however,
typical water-related problems can arise. The evolution of the
Green Revolution Syndrome is characterized by a particular combination
of geopolitical, biological, population and economic trends (the
interplay of national interests, the seed revolution in agriculture,
population growth and impoverishment respectively). The Green
Revolution was forced through from above within the framework
of large-scale plans, and on a global level through the transfer
of technology and know-how from the rich to the poor.
The syndrome analysis approach illustrates that the food security
problem cannot be reduced to food shortage alone. Poverty is often
accompanied by chronic malnutrition and famine. Close links must
therefore be forged between rural development and increased production.
The Council recommends in the debate over a New Green Revolution,
i.e. enhancing food production while at the same time ensuring
the growth of the small business sector, the craft trades and
rural markets should be taken into consideration. Secure land
tenure rights are essential if farmers are to have the capacity
to plan the utilization of their resources on a long-term basis.
Enhancing legal security for small farmers is thus a contribution
to resource protection and a better means of realizing the right
to food and water laid down in the International Covenant on Economic,
Social and Cultural Rights. Water rights should therefore be specified
in greater detail, and special institutions should be established
with responsibility for enforcing such rights. Environmentally-sound
management methods that protect resources, such as agroforestry
(combined agriculture and forestry practices) and multiple cropping,
are very difficult to implement on a large scale without start-up
assistance. States must therefore become involved in the field
of rural development and assist in the improvement of agricultural
practices. The debt for food security swaps recommended by the
World Food Summit are supported by the Council as an important
instrument in this respect.
The analysis of the Green Revolution Syndrome with special reference
to water problems reveals that current irrigation systems are
urgently in need of improvement, as almost two thirds of all land
irrigated worldwide is in need of rehabilitation. Subsidies should
be dismantled, but without endangering the subsistence of small
farmers. One way to achieve this would be to introduce a special
form of water benefit for specific target groups, whereby those
most vulnerable to crisis would have to be identified. Water resource
development projects and water management systems must form an
integral part of regional development programs, with preference
given to local, small-scale solutions.
The Aral Sea Syndrome refers
to the problems associated with centrally planned, large-scale
projects involving water resource development. Such projects are
ambivalent -- on the one hand, they provide the additional resources
that are required (water for food security, renewable energy),
or they protect existing structures and people (flood control);
on the other, they can have severe impacts on the environment
and society. The effects of these large-scale installations are
rarely confined to the local or regional area, but can assume
far-reaching and even international proportions.
The various manifestations of the Aral Sea Syndrome are illustrated
in two case studies. Attention is directed first and foremost
to the greatest environmental catastrophe ever caused to regional
water resources by mankind -- the desiccation of the Aral Sea
that lends the syndrome its name. The second study concerns the
Three Gorges Dam that China is currently constructing on the Yangtse
River, and describes the benefits derived in the form of electrical
power and flood control, as well as the serious problems engendered
in the form of compulsory resettlement of more than a million
people and major environmental impacts.
How can the susceptibility or vulnerability to the Aral Sea Syndrome
on the part of the various regions be measured? To do this, a
complex global indicator is being developed for assessing the
anthropogenic changes in surface runoff caused by large-scale
projects. A second indicator mirrors the vulnerability of the
various regions to the occurrence of the syndrome as a function
of various geographical and societal factors. Combining these
two data sets produces a global indicator for the intensity of
the syndrome.
Applying the syndrome approach gives rise to the general imperative
to preserve the integrity and function of catchment areas and
to prevent the degradation of ecosystems and soils. The Council
attaches considerable weight to the reduction or avoidance of
the disposition to large-scale water resource development projects
with severe environmental or social consequences. If large-scale
installations are nevertheless essential, they must be subjected
to a cautious assessment in which all environmental and social
costs are first internalized. The Council specifies crash barriers
that may not be crossed and puts forward recommendations regarding
the assessment procedure.
The Favela Syndrome refers
to the progressive impoverishment and environmental degradation
brought about by uncontrolled growth of human settlements. Due
to the sheer speed of such informal urbanization and the failures
evident in many policy fields, states become incapable of controlling
further settlement (e.g. by planning land use and building, or
by constructing water supply and wastewater treatment facilities).
Uncontrolled urban agglomerations have a very high level of water
demand and in most cases an inadequate system for sewage disposal.
Most people living there have no access to clean drinking water
or adequate sanitation. This explains the diseases typical for
this syndrome (e.g. cholera), which can spread to other regions
of the world as a result of global mobility.
How can the Favela Syndrome be mitigated? Firstly, it is essential
to combat the basic underlying causes, such as rural exodus, which
give rise to the Favela Syndrome in the first place and which
ultimately produce the water-related problems. To eradicate the
latter, the Council recommends establishing the prerequisites
for integrated treatment of water-related problems in the urban
agglomerations, for example by capacity-building in the local
government sphere and through closer cooperation between public
administration and the informal sector. In most cases water prices
are too low and lead to wastage (frequent when water supply companies
are state-owned); conversely, however, water prices are often
much too high (where private-sector water traders operate) and
impose a particularly heavy burden on the poor. The system for
pricing water in urban agglomerations should therefore be changed
in such a way that prices minimize wastage without, however, depriving
the poor of access to water. Here, too, it may be necessary to
consider paying water benefit to the needy. The Council also recommends
a series of technical measures for mitigating water crises. A
very practical method could be the institution of inter-city partnerships
focusing on solutions to the water crisis in the favelas and in
the surrounding areas from which people migrate to the favelas.
Key issues in the freshwater crisis
Certain problems are common
to all syndromes and are dealt with by the Council as cross-cutting
key issues of the freshwater crisis.
One such issue concerns
the potential for political conflict ensuing from water resource
problems. Are international water wars conceivable? Under what
conditions are water wars especially likely? What options are
available for the peaceful settlement of international conflicts
over water resources? These questions are examined for four conflicts
with very different trajectories. Disputes over the Great Lakes
in North America have generally been resolved through cooperation,
and in the case of the conflict between Hungary and the Slovakia,
both parties accepted the jurisdiction of the International Court
of Justice. There are no signs of an agreed solution to the conflict
between Turkey, Syria and Iraq over the waters of the Tigris-Euphrates
basin. Some observers see the possibility of a renewed escalation
of political conflict between Israel, Jordan, Syria and the Palestinian
administration of the West Bank over the allocation of water resources.
Medical aspects form an
important dimension of the freshwater crisis. In the first half
of this century, many vector-borne diseases appeared to be in
decline. However, these diseases are increasingly commonplace
again in many developing countries. Such infections have acquired
greater significance in industrialized countries as well, especially
through highly-resistant strains of pathogens. There are manifold
reasons for this trend: human settlements with high population
density even in the vicinity of forests and swamps, growth in
world trade with greater mobility of people and goods, excessive
use of pesticides and antibiotics, the adaptation of pathogens
to environmental conditions, social and political collapse, rapid
population growth and regional climate disturbances. Waterborne
infections are one of the main causes of disease and death worldwide:
at present, diseases transmitted through water or water-related
vectors afflict about half the world population. Regulating the
supply of water and the treatment of wastewater according to the
quality criteria drawn up by the WHO is therefore the most effective
precaution against disease. Investments in this area promise one
of the greatest possible health gains. The Council therefore recommends,
inter alia, that drinking water and wastewater treatment projects
be given greater levels of support within the framework of development
cooperation, and that food security programs be linked to infrastructural
improvements in drinking water supply. The construction of reservoirs
and open irrigation installations should no longer be supported
as long as their health impacts have not been examined and counter-measures
implemented. Vaccination against waterborne diseases should be
improved and distributed more widely; this also requires greater
investment in the development of vaccines.
In irrigated regions, the
issues of food and water supply are intimately linked. In the
large river basins such as the Nile, the Euphrates or the Tigris,
the use of water in agricultural irrigation systems enabled the
rise of the oldest civilizations over 5,000 years ago. Although
there have been quantitative and qualitative improvements in the
supply of food to humans over the last thirty years, the situation
in regions with water scarcity and large fluctuations in rainfall
continues to be highly problematic. In many developing countries,
economic stagnation, climatic and pedological disadvantages, distributional
problems and population growth are causing a dramatic deterioration
in the food situation. Whereas undernutrition is no longer a serious
problem in the growth economies of Southeast Asia, states in sub-Saharan
Africa as well as South Asia give cause for concern. One person
in three in sub-Saharan Africa is chronically undernourished.
At the same time, the area of cropland available for growing staple
foods is in decline. Today, there are 16 million hectares
less land in use for cereal production compared to the 1981 figure.
Even though the area of irrigated land is increasing by 1% per
annum, this corresponds to a per capita decrease of 12% in real
terms by the year 2010. The trends for cropland are even worse
on the whole, as the available land per capita will fall by a
total of 50 million hectares (21%) by the year 2010, despite
increases in the area of land used by agriculture. The response
recommended by the Council is to increase irrigation efficiency,
reduce the amount of water wasted through pumping, diversion or
delivery to plants, and make greater use of salt-tolerant plants.
Rainfed cropping should also be improved, as should the cultivation
of locally adapted crops and varieties. Another option would be
to optimize aquacultures and develop strategies for multiple use
of water resources.
The Council examines in
close detail the degradation of freshwater habitats, i.e. the
damage to waterbodies by physical, chemical or biotic factors
exceeding the formers stress-bearing capacity. Degradation reduces
the quality of the natural areas affected and impairs their usefulness
for humankind. Any reduction in water quality alters the composition
of the biota; in most cases, the number of species declines. In
cases of severe damage, species diversity is reduced to a small
number of common species with high resilience. Increasing salinity
produces similar impacts. Sulfur and nitrogen compounds released
through the burning of fossil fuels are transported by air currents
across large distances and later deposited as acid rain, the most
important factor causing acidification of waterbodies. Eutrophication
-- enhanced nutrient loads to waterbodies -- is accelerating the
production of primary organic material and biological decomposition
processes in particular. In numerous industrialized countries,
the ecosystems of the major rivers have been largely destroyed
through the construction of dams for hydroelectric power generation.
The Council recommends that no untreated wastewater be fed into
non-flowing waterbodies, that the shores of lakes be placed under
special protection and that action be taken to prevent the erosion
of slopes near the shores of lakes. The importation of unlisted
exotic species should also be stopped. Wetlands perform a special
ecological function and should no longer be drained; renaturalization
measures are needed here instead.
Technological solutions
for supplying households, agriculture and industry with water,
for efficient water use and for purifying wastewater play a key
role in the sustainable management of this precious resource.
Due to the mounting contamination of surface water and groundwater,
increasingly costly treatment processes must be deployed in order
to supply people with drinking water. Pollution from industrial
sources should therefore be reduced as far as possible by integrating
environmental protection into production. Leaching of chemicals
and other problematic substances from agriculture should be avoided.
Because of the high cost of treating sewage, the wastewater of
one third of humankind is discharged without treatment, even in
OECD countries. In developing countries, where the majority of
people have neither access to clean drinking water nor sewage
systems, there is an urgent need to develop and implement culturally
and locally adapted technologies for water supply and sewage treatment.
In many cases, existing technological potential for efficient
water use is not exploited to the extent possible, despite the
fact that substantial reductions in water consumption by irrigation
schemes, industry and private households could often be achieved
with suitable technical equipment.
Ways out of the global water crisis
On the basis of the new
paradigm and the guiding principles for sound management of water
resources, the Council describes the sociocultural and individual
foundations for water resource management. The ways in which people
use water depend not only on environmental and economic conditions,
but also on manifold cultural factors, in other words the specific
water culture of a society. Water resource management was often
the starting point for human civilizations: ancient civilizations
such as those in Egypt, the Indus Valley or along the Huang He
in China arose from regional water cultures. The water culture
in a specific type of society is multidimensional, featuring scientific,
technical, economic, legal-administrative, religious, symbolic
and aesthetic dimensions, for example. Another important aspect
is how people perceive water: for instance, water is barely acknowledged
as a resource in many industrialized countries, where it flows
straight from the tap at a relatively low price.
A central pathway out of the water crisis is therefore to enhance
environmental education and public discourse. The Council has
developed a series of concrete solutions in this respect. Possible
responses include media campaigns to save water, information on
specific options, or pilot projects in selected urban districts.
Communication between those involved, thus triggering learning
processes that can subsequently lead to changes in behavior patterns,
is of the essence here. In the industrialized countries, discursive
forms of planning and conflict resolution are gaining in popularity
-- examples are Round Table discussions, citizen involvement,
alternative procedures for settling conflicts, or Local Agenda
21 initiatives. In general, water-related problems should be made
easier for people to perceive. The extent to which individual
behavior affects water resources must be made clear to all, as
must the successes that can be achieved by modifying behavior.
An effective step would be, for example, to publish the water
consumption figures of a particular community on a noticeboard
so that a local water-saving culture can be promoted.
The instruments with which policymakers could shape societys management
of water resources in a viable way are described in detail. This
requires a highly differentiated analysis, since there is hardly
a single resource that is used in as many different ways as water.
To arrive at an optimal distribution of water resources, attention
is focused primarily on institutional solutions. However, precisely
because of the different uses to which humans put water, no institutional
solution can provide a convincing response by itself. The Council
therefore recommends that consideration be given in any case to
a combination of different instruments, whereby the criteria of
efficiency, equity and sustainability must be complied with as
optimally as possible in each specific case. Market-based solutions
generally hold out the promise of more efficient water use. However,
the state must support them by establishing an appropriate framework
and by implementing measures in order to conform to the criterion
of equity and the secure coverage of basic needs for water as
a basis for life (e.g. through anti-trust law, water benefit for
the needy and similar).
The main focus of the section dealing with the role of law in
the sound management of water resources is on multilateral aspects
of water use. A distinction is made between two areas in which
international cooperation is essential: firstly, riparian states
bordering on inland waterbodies, i.e. which share a river basin
or an inland lake, must engage in cooperation. In such cases,
international freshwater law requires that riparian states share
the utilization of water resources in an equitable and reasonable
manner. This aspect is regulated in detail by the Convention on
the Non-Navigational Uses of International Watercourses recently
adopted by the Sixth Committee of the United Nations General Assembly.
Secondly, the Councils view is that the global water crisis also
demands international partnership over and beyond the riparian
states of an inland waterbody. The entire international community
is called upon to support all those states that are affected or
directly threatened by a water crisis. The Secretary-General of
the United Nations has called for a global consensus on international
freshwater policy, which the Council expressly supports. From
the viewpoint of the WBGU, this consensus could form the basis
for a variety of institutional solutions -- states could agree
on a new Plan of Action, or they could go a step further and adopt
a World Water Charter establishing behavioral standards for states,
multilateral organizations and non-governmental bodies that would
be non-binding in international law, but nevertheless representing
a political commitment on the part of signatories. A third step
would be to use the Desertification Convention as a model for
negotiating an international convention on the protection of freshwater
resources, in the form of a legally binding Framework Convention
on Freshwater Resources, for example. The Council believes, however,
that the time is not yet ripe for this latter step. Nevertheless,
Germany should make a concerted effort to initiate negotiations
for a World Water Charter, for which the Council has drafted a
basic outline in its Report.
Potential instruments within an international and national strategy
for sustainable management of water resources could take a variety
of forms. Optimal instrument mixes for responding to various problems
of freshwater policy are presented, for example in the fields
of water supply, wastewater treatment, protection of health, irrigation,
human nutrition, disaster prevention and control, and for the
settlement of disputes at national and international level.
Recommendations to the Federal Government
A number of specific recommendations
to policymakers and on further research needs can be derived from
the ways out of the water crisis developed by the Council. The
basic guiding principle for efficient, equitable and sustainable
management of freshwater resources as applied by the Council must
be operationalized in specific contexts and given shape and form
through practical action. Germany can help resolve global water
problems primarily by asserting its influence in various fields
of international policymaking. These include international development
cooperation, foreign trade, the transfer of knowledge and technology,
and support of existing and forthcoming international regimes
in the environmental and development field. Furthermore, by implementing
a national water policy complying with the guiding principles
outlined by the Council, Germany can strive for an enhanced role
as a model of sound water resource management for other regions
to follow.
Sound management of water
resources requires a definition of sociocultural and ecological
crash barriers. It is crucially important in this context to take
an integrated view of environmental and development standards
and to elucidate in sufficient depth the repercussions of water-related
projects. Specifically, the Council recommends that:
A fundamental consensus
between competing users, societal groups or states on the specific
crash barrier criteria for sound management of freshwater resources
does not automatically mean that these limits will be respected,
however. This would require agreement on institutional regulations
that can be enhanced by technical, educational and economic programs.
In connection with the further
development of international law and international regime formation,
the Council recommends that the Federal Government supports negotiations
for a World Water Charter and for a comprehensive Global Plan
of Action for Sustainable Water Management. Additionally, water-relevant
standards should form a more integral part of international trade
and credit agreements (WTO, World Bank programs, Hermes credit
guarantees, etc.), and sound management of water resources should
be taken into consideration more as a cross-cutting task in sectoral
regimes for sustainable development (examples being the Climate
Convention, negotiations on the protection of forests, the Biodiversity
Convention and the Desertification Convention). International
cooperation should also be stepped up with regard to water-relevant
aspects of the International Covenant on Economic, Social and
Cultural Rights and the relevant responsibilities of the United
Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights.
Finally, it is important to improve the coordination of international
organizations and programs in the field of sustainable development;
here, the Federal Government should exert political pressure to
ensure integration of the latter within a single Organization
for Sustainable Development. In particular, it would be possible
to integrate the UNEP, the CSD and the UNDP in one body, while
closer links could be forged between it and the World Bank, the
International Monetary Fund, the World Trade Organisation and
UNCTAD.
Regarding the amendment of the United Nations Charter, which Germany
supports (German membership of the Security Council), the Federal
Government should also lend support to the inclusion of articles
on sustainable development, for example by including environmental
protection in Article 55, and the goal of sustainable development
in the Preamble and in Article 1 or 2. Negotiations on the Convention
on the Non-Navigational Uses of International Watercourses have
made substantial progress following the recent resolution of the
Sixth Committee of the United Nations General Assembly. The Council
recommends that these negotiations be brought forwards as rapidly
as possible, that the ban on major environmental damage to waterbodies
and neighboring ecosystems be given priority in international
law over riparian states utilization rights, and that extra regulations
be agreed upon to include all groundwater stocks, wetlands and
coastal waters.
As far as foreign trade
policy and development cooperation are concerned, the Council
recommends that securing a basic supply of water for nutrition
and sanitation purposes be given greater consideration, in addition
to environmental aspects, in multilateral agreements on development
cooperation, whereby agreement must be reached with the partner
countries in question. Preference should be given to recycling
water as opposed to primary withdrawals, whereby withdrawals from
fossil aquifers should be seen as a last resort. Local cultural
traditions of protecting waterbodies and the environment, as well
as indigenous knowledge must be respected as a matter of principle.
It is essential to ensure public participation on the part of
those affected, as this is the only way to guarantee the social
acceptability and effectiveness of development policy measures
and to determine the real needs of users. These aspects should
be taken into consideration above all in the debate over a New
Green Revolution; it is precisely here that efforts should be
made to bring about a greater diversity of seeds and breeds in
agriculture, and to promote rainfed cropping in particular more
intensively. A second main focus of water-specific development
cooperation should be the improvement of water supply to poor
sections of the urban population. In general, integrated water
resource management in cities should be carried out to a greater
extent by examining quantity and quality in combination only,
by linking supply issues to wastewater treatment issues and by
choosing catchment areas as planning units rather than local authority
and national borders.
The Council recommends, in particular, that better support be
given to states affected or threatened by water crises, above
all in the modernization of existing agricultural irrigation systems,
in the repair and expansion of water supply networks, and in establishing
or improving systems for drinking water extraction, treating wastewater
and recycling water. These activities should be carried out within
the framework of bilateral development cooperation as well as
through close collaboration with international organizations such
as the FAO, the WHO, the UNDP or the World Bank.
In addition, environmental and development projects advancing
the cause of peace should be vigorously promoted in areas suffering
from water crisis (the Middle East, for example). Another important
activity concerns the transfer of technology and expertise to
maintain sociocultural and ecological water standards, especially
in areas affected by water crisis, and to protect the worlds natural
heritage, whereby special weight must be attached to water-saving
and environmentally, culturally and locally compatible methods.
Macroeconomic externalities (such as long-term impairment of waterbody
quality as a result of industrial activities) should be taken
into consideration by means of appropriate operationalization
of the liability principle, whereby the ecological crash barriers
can be complied with in an effective way by granting tradable
emission certificates, for example. Improvements should be made
to the conditional framework for efficient management of scarce
freshwater resources; to this end, rights of tenure and disposal
should be secured as far as possible, available water resources
should be subjected to economic valuation, and limits imposed
on subsidies that reduce competition. Where effective competition
and anti-trust laws are in place, international water markets
should be furthered in various regions of the world. A basic supply
of freshwater in water-scarce countries must be secured by appropriate
forms of direct assistance (water benefit rather than large-scale
water resources projects).
Environmental education must similarly be advanced, also in relation
to Local Agenda 21 initiatives. Special efforts should be made
here to increase awareness of the interactions between individual
behavior and damage to the environment, to provide the population
with feedback on successful modification of behavior (such as
information on consumption, and implications for water charges)
and to enable learning from models.
As far as financing activities
are concerned, the Council believes that greater efforts need
to be made in order to increase Germanys financial contribution
in support of water management policies in countries with insufficient
resources, particularly in light of the UN Secretary-Generals
estimate of US$ 50 billion per year to meet global drinking
water needs over the 1990.2000 period. All opportunities for reducing
the debt servicing burden on developing countries threatened by
water crisis should be exploited to this end, whereby links to
water policy programs should be examined (debt for water security
swaps). The Council also recommends exploring the possibility
of assistance to financially overburdened countries from a global
Water Fund replenished via robust international financing mechanisms
(for example, a World Water Penny levied on water consumption).
With regard to international
research collaboration, the Council recommends: enhancing the
international transfer of knowledge about physiological, epidemiological
and environmental factors of relevance to water resources, and
on all aspects of sound management of freshwater resources, whereby
special emphasis should be placed on communicating scientific
and technological interrelationships (in the fields of hydrology,
hydraulic engineering, water treatment or hygiene, inter alia),
tried-and-tested regulations of the institutional organizations,
and methods for efficient management of scarce environmental resources;
developing integrated and participatory mechanisms for maintaining
water-specific standards in private- and public sector projects
(water audits, water impact assessments, etc.), and disseminating
information on same.
Five years after Rio -- an initial assessment
In addition to the key focus
on water resources, the Council assesses the follow-up process
to the 1992 UN Conference for Environment and Development in a
further section of the Report. In the Rio Declaration of 1992,
almost all states agreed on the goal of establishing a new and
equitable global partnership through the creation of new levels
of cooperation. Growing institutionalization of international
environmental and development policy can indeed be identified,
following the entry into force of the Montreal Protocol on Substances
that Deplete the Ozone Layer in 1989, the Biodiversity Convention
in 1993, the Framework Convention on Climate Change and the Convention
on the Law of the Sea in 1994, and the Desertification Convention
in 1996. The first follow-up documents have meanwhile been signed,
for example the Draft Agreement for the Implementation of the
UN Convention on the Law of the Sea (focusing on straddling and
highly migratory fish stocks); the next steps could be a Protocol
to the Framework Convention on Climate Change, a Biosafety Protocol
to the Biodiversity Convention and a Forests Convention.
The intervening period since 1992 has seen a whole series of UN
Summits closely related to the goals of Agenda 21, such as the
United Nations Conference on Human Settlements (Habitat II) in
Istanbul, the World Summit on Social Development in Copenhagen
and the World Food Summit in Rome. Even though these major UN
conferences ended in non-legally binding Declarations and Plans
of Action, they perform a key function at the symbolic level of
politics, where the agenda for international policymaking is determined
and where general expectations are formulated for policymaking
at national level. This is the case, for example, with the so-called
20/20 compact, according to which developed and developing country
partners agreed to allocate 20% of the ODA provided by the donor
countries and the development banks and 20% of the national budget,
respectively, to basic social programs.
Despite the various Earth negotiations that have been conducted
recently, one must not lose sight of the fact that Agenda 21 can
only really be implemented through participation and initiative
on the part of every individual. The Rio Conference set in train
a process of implementing Agenda 21 at local level, which is an
important addition to the processes operating at international
level. The Local Agenda 21 initiatives form an indispensable part
of the overall effort to preserve global environmental assets.
Both trends are equally important constituents of effective political
action to protect the global environment.
The Councils overall conclusion is that the Rio Conference in
itself was a major step forward. For the first time in history,
the overwhelming majority of nations adopted the guiding principle
of sustainable development. The countries represented at UNCED
acknowledged their responsibility for the global environmental
and development system and accepted the need for action at the
global level. However, the negative trends that led to the Rio
Conference in the first place continue unabated and in some cases
have worsened still further. The strategies adopted in Rio must
therefore be pursued with added vigor and determination. Moreover,
every effort must now be made to ensure that the pressures exerted
by national problems and the greater financial constraints now
operating do not lead to declining involvement in global issues.
The fact that difficulties at national level are often linked
through globalization to global environmental problems and development
concerns and experience feedback from the latter means that national
and global tasks can only be tackled through joint action. Germany
has a special obligation and responsibility to bear in this context.
As one of the major causal agents of global environmental problems
and as one of the most powerful economic nations in the world,
Germany should display a special level of commitment in the field
of global environmental and development policy.
The Councils analysis shows that the emergent global crisis of
freshwater resources could become even worse in the future. The
political domain should therefore take action without delay; national
and international action programs must be designed and implemented
as rapidly as possible in order to minimize risks and reverse
current trends. The sheer complexity of the freshwater crisis
calls for detailed and case-specific recommendations on activities
and research. In line with the Councils criteria for sound water
resources management, these recommendations can be summarized
in the form of four central and three syndrome-specific demands:
Water is a scarce resource
that is becoming more and more scarce for humankind and nature
as a result of population growth and rising individual demands.
It is therefore all the more important that any assessment of
water resources be oriented to water scarcity around the world.
Efficient management of
scarce water resources provides benefits for all humankind. However,
the distribution of water must also conform to the principles
governing the individuals right to a livelihood as well as .
especially in international conflicts . the principle of
distributive justice. There should also be adequate protection
against severe droughts and floods. The Council puts forward the
following key recommendations in this respect:
Utilization of water resources
by humans is placed under natural constraints wherever essential
ecological functions are disturbed or where valuable biotopes
are threatened. The basic principles that should operate include
protection of species diversity in freshwater ecosystems, ensuring
that water quality does not deteriorate beyond an environmentally
acceptable level, and conservation of all major wetland areas.
The impacts of water withdrawals and waterbody utilization on
surrounding areas of land (land consumption in particular) must
be taken into consideration here, as must the indirect human-induced
effects operating through the media of soils and air on water-based
habitats.
In addition to national
activities aimed at a leading role and geared to bilateral economic,
development and finance policy, it is absolutely imperative to
codify the goals of sustainable water use in the form of international
conventions and treaties.
Alongside the key recommendations
directly derived from the guiding principle of sound management
of water resources, the Council has identified three syndromes
in which increasingly negative trends in the water-centred network
of interrelations are concentrated. They therefore play a crucial
role in exacerbating the global water crisis and hence require
rapid and effective strategy responses. Key recommendations giving
special consideration to the systemic nature of the freshwater
crisis can be derived in this area as well.
Secretariat of the
German Advisory Council on Global Change
Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research
PO Box 12 01 61
D-27515 Bremerhaven
Germany
Phone: ++49/471/4831-723 or -733
Fax: ++49/471/4831-218
Email: wbgu@awi-bremerhaven.de
Internet: http://www.wbgu.de/
Copy deadline: June 1, 1997
© 1997, WBGU
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