|
German Advisory Council on Global Change - WBGU |
|
| Mission | Publications | Council Members | Secretariat | Contact |
| . | SUMMARY OF THE ANNUAL REPORT 1996 |
 |
World in Transition: The Research
Challenge
|
| . | CONTENTS |
Introduction
Integrated global change research
Relevance criteria and integration principles
The problem-solving process
Sectoral research on global change
The organization of research
Prospects
| . | SUMMARY |
For the first time in history, human activities are having
impacts of planetary scale. The resultant changes in the global
environment are reshaping the relationship between humankind and
the natural basis on which its existence depends. This transformation
process, called global change, is occurring at unprecedented speed
and involves many risks. It can only be understood if Earth is
conceived of holistically as a single system. Global change poses
a major challenge for the scientific community, which must describe
and explain how the Earth System is altered by human intervention,
how these processes are influenced in turn by natural changes
in the Earth System, and, finally, whether and to what extent
there are ways to control global change.
Anthropogenic climate change is a good example for the sheer dimensions
of human-induced effects on the global environment. Carbon dioxide
emissions from transport in Germany contribute towards rising
sea level and the expected disappearance of coral islands 20,000 km
away, thus robbing the inhabitants of such islands of their very
habitat. Humankind is thus confronted not only with a major ethical
dilemma, but also with a complex of difficult research issues
and problems which have to be resolved as quickly and as competently
as possible. These problems can only be solved by interdisciplinary
and international research networks in which, alongside
climate modeling and hydrography, for example, other disciplines
such as the philosophy of law and cultural anthropology must also
play a role.
Global change research poses an enormous challenge for the researchers
themselves, for the bodies funding and promoting such research
as well as for those who base their decision-making on its findings,
and demands integrative capacity, flexibility and imaginative
power from scientists, research promoting organizations and users.
Innovative guidelines and structures are necessary for handling
the complex problems and for developing the problem-solving competence.
"Traditional" environmental research has so far proved
inappropriate to meet these demands.
In its 1993, 1994 and 1995 Annual Reports, the Council has identified
and described the core problems associated with global change
- on the one hand, the changes in people's natural environment
(the "ecosphere"), on the other, the changes with society
itself (the "anthroposphere"). The 1996 Annual Report
now focuses on the organization of global change research and
examines the conditions for enhancing Germany's contribution.
Suspicions have often been voiced that calls for more research
serve only to divert attention from the necessity of environmental
action. However, research explicitly geared to solving specific
problems is indeed relevant for political action, improving
the decision-making competence on which any such action depends.
The Council's focus in this year's Annual Report embraces not
only the "classical" fields of environmental research
within the natural sciences, but also the economic and sociocultural
dimensions of global change. The methodological foundations have
been established in previous Reports through the development of
an integrative research approach based on the analysis of syndromes
(WBGU, 1993 and 1994). This approach permits the operationalization
of the networked thinking that is essential for mitigating global
change and offers new options for the design and organization
of global change research.
When public funds are scarce, clear-cut priorities are required
in order to achieve maximum efficiency in the selection and execution
of research projects. To this end, the Council has elaborated
relevance criteria and integrational principles for
global change research. These criteria and principles could also
be applied in the current reshaping of Germany's environmental
research programs. The Council welcomes the interministerial initiative
of the Federal Ministry for Education, Science, Research and Technology
(BMBF) and the Federal Ministry for Environment, Nature Conservation
and Reactor Safety (BMU) for a new environmental research program
to succeed several specialized programs and government support
frameworks for global change research in the fields of climate,
marine, polar and ozone research.
In this year's Report, the Council develops guidelines for the
essential restructuring and reorientation of selected areas within
Germany's global change research, while taking established structures
into consideration. This entails, on the one hand, a description
of integrated research approaches, as illustrated by a case study,
and, on the other, a survey of the classical sectors within global
change research, an evaluation of Germany's involvement in international
research programs, and the identification of research gaps in
specific sectors.
A cardinal feature of global change is that humankind itself is now an active factor within the Earth System, playing a significant role at the planetary scale. Human interventions in that system, as manifested in the depletion of raw materials, shifts in material and energy fluxes, changes to large-scale natural structures and critical stresses on environmental assets, are altering the very character of the Earth System to an increasing degree. The complexity of these processes poses a major challenge for the scientific community and generates a number of new research issues, listed below. Finding answers to these questions will be of increasing importance in the years to come:
Such research should be guided by the principle of sustainable
development. The crucial element of this concept, now generally
acknowledged, is the interdependence of environment and development
(AGENDA 21). This reflects a growing insight that human beings
and their environment are closely integrated within a system of
mutual interaction. Research on global change is therefore confronted
with two fundamental problems. Firstly, the investigation of the
Earth System requires an integrative approach because the interactions
between its components operate across the boundaries of single
disciplines, sectors or environmental media. The second fundamental
problem is the enormous complexity of the dynamic interrelationships
involved, which makes a destinct description, any overall analysis
and modeling much more difficult. The only approach capable of
responding adequately to these problems is one that is networked
and interdisciplinary. The sectoral bias within research must
be supplemented by a systems approach that establishes cross-linkages
between different strands of research.
The Council has proposed a new method for holistic analysis
of the present crisis of the Earth System (WBGU, 1993 and 1994).
The elements chosen for that analysis are not, as is often the
case elsewhere, a set of easily indexed base variables, such as
atmospheric concentrations of CO2, size of population or gross
national product. Instead, the most important global trends are
being used as qualitative elements. They are termed trends
of global change and provide information about the dominant
features of global development. The development of the Earth System
is then described using this set of trends. While there are highly
complex natural or anthropogenic processes considered, the internal
processes are not lost in sight.
Those trends possessing special relevance for global change are
selected on the basis of educated guesses. They are not evaluated
at the outset; problematic processes such as climate change, loss
of biological diversity or soil erosion are placed alongside other
trends - like globalization of markets, or progress in biotechnology
and genetic engineering - which can have positive or negative
impacts depending on the perspective taken and the specific manifestation
of the trend in question. Another category of trends are those
which may lead to the mitigation of global problems, e.g. strengthening
of environmental protection efforts at national level, growing
environmental awareness, or the growth of international regimes.
The various trends and their interactions can be combined in a
qualitative global network of interrelationships, which
describes global change as a system and which represents the starting
point for more extensive analysis of the Earth System's dynamics.
With the help of this empirical-phenomenological description of
global change, it is possible to design qualitative models, the
subject of a current BMBF research project.
Networks of interrelationships can be developed for other levels
besides the global. A regionalized analysis of the Earth System
using this instrument shows clear indication that the interactions
in certain regions between human societies and the environment
frequently operate along typical patterns. These functional
patterns (syndromes) are unfavourable and characteristic constellations
of natural and civilizational trends and their respective interactions,
and can be identified in many regions of the world. The Council's
underlying thesis is that complex global environmental and development
problems can be attributed to a discrete number of environmental
degradation patterns.
Syndromes are transsectoral in nature; while specific problems
may affect several sectors (such as the economy, the biosphere,
population), they are always related, directly or indirectly,
to natural resources. Syndromes are globally relevant when they
modify the Earth System and have a noticeable impact, directly
or indirectly, on the basis of life for a major part of humankind,
or when global solutions are needed to surmount the problems.
This year's Report includes an attempt at identifying the globally
significant syndromes under which Planet Earth is suffering (see
box "Overview of Global Change Syndromes").
BOX: Overview of global change syndromes
|
The importance of global change for the future development of humankind, and the uniqueness, complexity, variety and dynamics of the phenomena involved, make it necessary to deploy a number of additional relevance criteria for research policy. Putting these criteria into operation can fulfill a dual purpose - orienting research activity to the cross-sectional character of environmental issues, and achieving more efficient prioritization when financial resources are scarce. The Council's recommendation is that the following criteria in particular be applied when selecting research topics in the field of global change:
Since it is neither reasonable nor feasible for German global change research to cope with all syndromes simultaneously, priorities should be set with the help of the above criteria. Moreover, investigation of the various syndromes should be persued by the international scientific community. A survey conducted within the WBGU on the basis of the relevance criteria produced an initial ranking of the syndromes. Seven syndromes were given uppermost priority (listed in alphabetic order):
The specific recommendations are:
Achieving a global perspective requires collaboration between
and the integration of different disciplines, interest groups
and actors. The diversity of concepts for communicating environmental
knowledge means that many problems must be overcome for such integration
to occur. The key issue for researchers concerns the principles
according to which the requisite synthesis is to be realized.
Simply calling for "networking", "interdisciplinarity"
or "interaction" is inadequate as an approach - what
is needed are principles and instruments providing a concrete
basis for the holistic analysis of global change syndromes.
In this year's Annual Report, the WBGU puts forward a number of
principles that may prove helpful in the implementation of integrated
environmental research (integration principles). These principles
relate to analytic, methodological and organizational aspects,
as well as certain implementation aspects.
Research on decision-making processes in the field of environmental
policymaking has mainly been concerned with problems of national
environmental policy. Although this has led to findings that have
a bearing on the environmental decision-making process in the
international and global framework as well, the situation is more
complex. Global problems tend to be long-term in nature, which
gives rise to major problems with regard to diagnosis and forecasting.
This results in demands on early-warning systems and planning
instruments, as well as on research methods and instruments. Global
problems are also much more complex than environmental problems
at the purely national level, with all the implications for the
necessary consensus-formation. In an international context conflicts
are more difficult to resolve due to differences in culture, religion
and especially the level of development.
Research methods and approaches guided by national environmental
policy must therefore be adapted in such a way that they can also
be applied to the elements of the decision-making process relating
to global environmental change. The focus should not be restricted
to specific disciplines. Rather the various elements constituting
the problem-solving process should be structured first. Then it
should be asked which disciplines have already contributed or
which disciplines should make a greater contribution to interdisciplinary
research in future.
The next step is to ascertain which results are already available
and in what respects they require supplementing. Distinction can
be drawn between the following elements of problem-solving processes:
In this chapter, the Report describes the current status of German sectoral research on global change, including international involvement, and identifies the research gaps.
The advanced level of German research in this field must be maintained through continuous improvement of the existing infrastructure. German climate research, for example, occupies a leading position in the world in the development of coupled ocean-ice-atmosphere models, thanks to consistent support from the BMBF, the Max Planck Society (MPG) and the German Research Foundation (DFG). This position can only be maintained through adequate human resources policy, continuous modernization of computing capacities and constant refinement of models. Research tasks of special relevance to global change are:
Climate and atmosphere research, in the narrower sense, is conducted primarily by natural science. Research on the impacts of global change (especially climate impact research) should involve the human sciences as well. What is needed is:
As with climate research, it is essential that the advanced level of German research in this field be maintained through continuous improvement of the existing infrastructure. A committed role in the Joint Global Ocean Flux Study (JGOFS), Global Ocean Ecosystem Dynamics Programme (GLOBEC) and Land-Ocean Interactions in the Coastal Zone Programme (LOICZ), all core projects of International Geosphere Biosphere Programme (IGBP), is essential. Research tasks of special relevance to global change are:
With regard to the global aspects of water resources, there
is an enormous need for research into the causal interlinkages
between climate, vegetation and anthroposphere, and for the development
of environmentally sound land management practices that ensure
water resources in the long term, as envisaged by the Land-Use
and Land-Cover Change Programme (LUCC) and Biospheric Aspects
of the Hydrological Cycle Programme (BAHC) core projects of IGBP.
Freshwater is a vital resource in all areas of life and society,
functioning as a nutrient, a cultural asset and a production factor
simultaneously. The WBGU considers it extremely important that
research into freshwater resources be intensified. Research tasks
of special relevance to global change are:
The main focus here is to develop dynamic models of the regional and global water balance, including feedback effects to the climate system, the biosphere and the anthroposphere.
Soil research focuses primarily on the local and regional level, but it must now integrate global changes in climate, water balance and land use. The following fields are especially important in this connection:
Biodiversity, as a dimension of global change, is of such importance for the functions, stability and development of ecosystems that the Council considers it central to its recommendations. German biodiversity research still tends to focus too much on single disciplines and the purely national level. Wider conceptual frameworks and interdisciplinary links between the biosciences and the human sciences are still under development. The Council recommends that research be focused on the following areas:
Population trends, migration and urbanization are key factors in the analysis and management of global environmental problems. Population growth and poverty are powerful driving forces behind an overall trend that is now affecting industrialized countries as well, primarily in the form of mounting migrational pressure. Research in Germany is still inadequate, with respect to theoretical foundations, empirical case studies and simulation models, to analyze, forecast and respond to these trends. The following topics should be focused on:
The Council sees a need for global economics research in the following three fields :
Research by political science on environmental topics has mainly
focused on the national level, so it must now adopt a more global
perspective. The problems experienced by newly industrializing
nations and their growing importance for global change deserve
special attention. Policy concepts relating to global environmental
protection must also take into account the sociocultural and economic
conditions and international law.
International environmental research must widen its focus to embrace
not only global climate issues but also other problems such as
soil degradation, loss of biodiversity, and the scarcity and contamination
of water resources. In view of the discrepancy between environmental
awareness and the policies which are actually implemented, analysis
must center, as a matter of priority, on the process of political
will-formation and the implementation of international treaties.
Political research must also dedicate attention to the prevention
of environmental conflicts. The following tasks need to be accomplished:
The jurisprudence is examining the options for adopting and enforcing effective measures relating to global change. The legal issues include restricted national sovereignty, customary international law and ecological solidarity. Against this background, the Council recommends that the following legal issues be tackled:
The scientific disciplines covering the psychosocial sphere are devoting increasing attention to important issues in the analysis of the causes and effects of global change and interventions to remedy the problems which exist. This research is still little developed in Germany, with most projects involving only one discipline and decentralized organization. The following topics should be focused on, preferably by joint projects:
Accomplishing these tasks requires more cultural and cross-cultural comparative research on social actors in the form of comprehensive, transdisciplinary case studies, whereby studies should be conducted across a wide range of spatial and temporal scales.
Technological research is a key factor to manage problems of global change. A prime example is the further development of energy technologies aimed at an environmentally, economically and socially acceptable energy mix. The main focus should be placed on researching and developing different energy options, including:
Practical, technology-based solutions to complex environmental problems require cooperation between various disciplines, depending on the respective project and the specific problem it addresses. The following fields have a role to play in this context:
German research must undergo major structural improvements
if it is to meet the needs of modern global change research. These
include improvements to existing institutions, incentives for
innovative research projects, especially in university education,
and enhanced coordination of research and research promotion.
Demands for greater investment in research are frustrated by the
scarcity of public funds. Lack of finance is a major obstacle,
blocking further growth in research personnel and equipment budgets
and, through non-selective staff cuts, deprives research institutions
of opportunities to explore new research pathways. Shortage of
public funds has imposed a restrictive framework that must be
taken into consideration whenever organizational recommendations
are made. The research community is therefore compelled to think
about structural changes which might generate improved efficiency.
Nevertheless, for all the problems that exist, Germany's research
organization has many advantages.
The strengths of a federal and pluralist structure, and the number
and variety of research institutions this entails, stems from
the fact that individual groups can tackle new issues flexibly
and choose their own partners, especially when scientific encouragement
or financial incentives are provided. On the other hand, this
structure is highly intricate, which in turn hinders the concentration
of research capacities under one central topic and the execution
of long-term projects within international programs.
The German Science Council has given attention to these problems
facing and has drawn up a set of recommendations for transdisciplinary
environmental research at German universities, polytechnics and
other research establishments. The obstacles are even greater
for global change research, however, on account of the international
context and the need to carry out investigations with foreign
partners. This also explains why, in certain areas of global change
research, German involvement in international programs and cooperation
with developing countries is relatively confined.
Against this background, the Council puts forward a number of
general organizational recommendations, grouped under three headings:
Existing research establishments must be given the capacity
to continue ongoing projects in the field of global change research
and/or to relate projects to global problems, and to start new
projects involving cooperation at national and/or international
level. This recommendation is directed at universities and polytechnics
and to extra-university research establishments such as the Max
Planck Society (MPG), the Helmholtz research association (HGF),
the "Blue List" research institutes (WBL) and the Fraunhofer
Society (FhG), as well as the research facilities operated by
certain federal agencies. Impulses in this direction must come
from the facilities themselves or from the bodies which operate
and control them, i.e. by redefining the priorities and content
of research and by organizational restructuring.
What is absolutely essential, however, is the use of approved
support instruments on the part of the BMBF (joint projects,
research networks) and the DFG (priority programs, collaborative
research centers). Research groups and graduate colleges are suitable
instruments, whereby the restrictive principle that research units
must be located in a single institution should be relaxed in view
of the technical opportunities provided by modern telecommunications.
All these integrating measures should also be applied in the education
and training of domestic and foreign students and prospective
scientists. Aspects of global change should be referred to during
basic level courses, and studied in greater detail in advanced
courses.
Major items of research equipment are absolutely essential
in many areas of global change research. These includes equipment
for remote sensing and climate research using supercomputers,
research vessels, remote sensing satellites and monitoring stations.
Global change research also needs large-scale, comprehensive and
long-term observation data on the environment, the economy and
sociocultural aspects. It relies on comparisons between cultures
and ecosystems and must build on detailed and broadly conceived
case studies as well as complex models.
The Council attaches considerable importance to ensuring continued
provision of these basic requirements. Germany's participation
in international programs varies in quality, and in some important
areas is in need of expansion. The Council recommends continued
involvement in international institutions and Secretariats, in
terms of input, staffing and financial contribution, whereby greater
integration of German researchers by such institutions would be
desirable.
The Council recommends the establishment of a German Strategy
Center on Global Change in order to enhance problem-solving
capacity with respect to global change and to strengthen interdisciplinary
cooperation. The Center would carry out complex problem analyses,
using as well external experts to provide scientific support for
decision-making processes. It should take up suggestions of policymakers
and the public to translate these into research issues, as well
as process existing scientific knowledge to support decision-making
processes in politics, industry and society in general.
Small research centers should be set up at or around universities
for limited periods of time; these would work on acute
problems in the field of global change research over 10 years
or so, and ensure German participation in international programs.
In addition, the Council recommends the creation of research
networks as long-term, purpose-made alliances between independent
research institutions for joint work on complex issues, such as
a specific syndrome, and for further refinement of methodologies.
These should include the use of modern technologies for data acquisition,
storage and transmission within national and international frameworks.
Responsible research bodies (MPG, HGF, WBL and FhG), the DFG,
the BMBF and specialized research establishments and university
departments should jointly create flexible institutions to deal
with specific global change problems (inter-institutional research).
The Council appeals to industry and commerce, especially the multinational
corporations, to set up a Global Change Foundation as an
expression of environmental self-commitment. Such a body would
help compensate for the financial restrictions referred to earlier.
The Foundation should promote a dialog between the scientific
community, economic policymakers and the media on global change
issues. It could also be present at EXPO 2000 World Exhibition
in Hanover, Germany.
The two most important institutions providing funding and support
for research in Germany are the BMBF and the DFG. The BMBF has
several ministerial departments and various project support units
responsible for specific research fields relating to global change.
The same is true of the DFG, which is organized according to scientific
disciplines. Both institutions must strengthen their efforts towards
transdisciplinary planning and assessment. There is also
a need for closer coordination between the DFG and the BMBF regarding
the deployment of instruments for promoting global change research.
Within the Federal Government, supervisory control of global
change research is not confined to the BMBF. Although the
BMU does not operate its own research establishments, it supports
a number of global change research projects through the Federal
Environmental Agency (UBA). Major research facilities and projects
are also operated by the Federal Ministry of Traffic (BMV), Federal
Ministry of Economy (BMWi), Federal Ministry for Food, Agriculture
and Forestry (BML), Federal Ministry of Economic Cooperation and
Development (BMZ) and Federal Ministry of the Interior (BMI).
The Council states a need for coordination here, which should
go beyond the work of the Interministerial Working Group (IMA)
on Global Change.
The Council is monitoring with great interest the efforts of the
DFG to establish a German Global Change Committee, comprising
functional units of the Senate Committee for Environmental Research
(SAUF) and the German IGBP Committee, for the purpose of planning
and supporting research involvement in international global change
programs. This National Committee could also play a role in coordinating
the various global change research activities in Germany.
The Council also recommends that the Federal Chancellery produce
an integrated Global Report in the middle of each legislature
period. In view of the processes triggered off by UNCED in Rio
de Janeiro, the Report should provide information on Federal Government
activities concerning global change and sustainable development.
Policymaking and research activities in Germany should be analyzed
in terms of their environmental, economic and sociocultural impacts
within the global network of interrelationships. The Council firmly
believes that such a report would become an important source of
information for the general public in Germany and for foreign
institutions, and that it would exert a consolidating and integrating
influence on global change activities in the various federal ministries.
The work of the German Parliament's Enquete Commissions has
had an integrating effect on German research and government support
agencies. An Enquete Commission on "Global Change" could
continue on the work of the Enquete Commission on "Protection
of People and Environment", whereby the focus should be placed
on implementing the recommendations of the scientific community
as advanced, for example, by the German Advisory Council on Global
Change.
For some time now, there have been discussions about establishing
a German Academy of the Sciences, similar to those in other
countries, which could state its position on issues of national
importance with a high degree of independence and authority; were
such an academy to be created, the problem of global change would
certainly be an important topic for it to consider.
Considering its population, Germany is highly responsible for
the causes of global change. Its contribution towards global change
research, albeit substantial, must be radically increased. The
primary requirement is not so much a major increase in research
funding, or the founding of new large-scale research establishments,
but the efficient use of data and knowledge already available
and the synthesis of that knowledge to solve complex problems.
What is also needed are organizational measures to ensure that
existing global change research potential is deployed more effectively,
and that gaps in the various research fields can be closed by
providing a modest level of extra funding.
Transnational networking and integration into international programs
at European and global level are crucially important for German
global change research. According to Germany's role in the world
economy, German research should play a leading role in creating
and expanding research capacities in the developing countries.
 |
www.wbgu.de Webmaster |
|
