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German Advisory Council on Global Change - WBGU |
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| . | SUMMARY OF THE ANNUAL REPORT 1995 |
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World in Transition: Ways Towards
Global Environmental Solutions
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| . | CONTENTS |
Introduction
The societal conditions for solving global environmental problemsEnvironmental awareness and environmental education
Exchange of know-how and technology transfer
Institutions and organizations
Growth and distribution of the world's populationInternational conventions aimed at solving global environmental problems
The Framework Convention on Climate Change - Berlin and its aftermath
The Montreal Protocol - an example for successful environmental policy
The Convention on the Law of the Sea - towards the global
protection of the seas
The Desertification Convention - a first step toward the protection of soils
The Biodiversity Convention - the implementation is yet to come
Protection of Forests - protocol or convention ?
The Gatt/WTO-Regime - the greening of world tradeGeneral conclusions and recommendations
| . | SUMMARY |
The Berlin Climate Conference in the spring of 1995 was another
demonstration that individuals and societies will have to change
their ways of thinking if human-induced climate change is to be
counteracted. This process must apply for all aspects of global
change; the key trends have not diminished over the last few years,
on the contrary, they have become more threatening than ever before.
The German Advisory Council on Global Change (Wissenschaftlicher
Beirat der Bundesregierung Globale Umweltveränderungen [WBGU])
describes in its 1995 annual report "Ways Towards Global
Environmental Solutions". While ultimate solutions have not
yet crystallized in many areas, the Council proceeds on the assumption
that, if those involved are willing and take appropriate action,
problems can be solved, i.e. that irreversible and disastrous
development is not inevitable. Whether these solutions are actually
striven for is still an open question, since major reorientations
are required at the local, national and global level.
Two paths must be taken in parallel. Firstly, societal conditions
for the solution of global environmental problems must be changed;
achieving these conditions at individual and institutional level
represents a major challenge for governments and societies. Secondly,
international arrangements relating to various global environmental
problems have to be adopted and/or strengthened by democratic
process, and implemented with appropriate measures.
Most international declarations and conventions for combating
global environmental problems and their consequences demand a
strengthening of environmental awareness among the population
and measures relating to environmental education. Global environmental
politics will only fulfill its tasks if the decision-makers in
the individual nations are supported by a population whose environmental
awareness and willingness to behave in an environmentally appropriate
way permits them to demand and assert the solutions to global
environmental problems. Not until the idea of sustainable development
is firmly anchored in the consciousness of people can strategies
for behavioral change be effective. What therefore is required
are worldwide and far-reaching measures of environmental education.
People's perception of environmental problems is one important
requirement for changes of environmentally harmful forms of production
and consumption. "Environmental awareness" has long
since escaped the confines of the industrialized countries, although
there still are substantial disparities between individual countries.
However, there is as yet no worldwide survey system for the continuous
recording of environment-related perceptions and attitudes. Since
such information is of decisive importance for measures aimed
at changing behavior, efforts to develop such an instrument as
part of the Human Dimensions of Global Environmental Change
Programme (HDP) should be given the support by Germany.
Environmental education is an important tool for abandoning
environmentally harmful forms of behavior, and for learning environmentally
appropriate behavior. Criteria for sound environmental education
involve learning from personal and conveyed experience in everyday
situations (situation orientation), learning in connection
with one's own direct actions (action orientation), and
incorporation of the subject matter into the socio-political context
(problem orientation). In spite of numerous political declarations
of intent, initiatives and programs, environmental education worldwide
must still be declared as underdeveloped, particularly with respect
to global environmental problems. This should however not blind
us to the substantial differences existing between individual
countries. In the industrial countries, where environmental education
has attained a relatively secure status, both in the formal educational
system and outside of it, a local, regional or national perspective
in environmental education still prevails. In the developing countries,
on the other hand, considerable structural shortcomings exist
in the educational systems, resulting in a very weak and insecure
status of environmental education. For this reason, great importance
is attached to the educational commitment of non-governmental
organizations (NGOs).
Reinforcing of technology transfer from industrial countries
to developing countries ranks among the classic demands of development
policy, and meanwhile has become an established component of international
environmental agreements. The Council emphasizes that such technology
transfer must be regarded as an exchange of know-how in a broader
sense, in which industrialized countries can also learn from developing
countries (two-way traffic). This applies not only to the values
and social structures of other cultures, but also to adapted technologies,
such as forms of soil management, irrigation techniques or types
of forest use. For this reason, the formation of knowledge and
the reactivation of traditional knowledge should each be supported
in the developing countries.
The transfer of know-how is predominantly effected via market
and competitive processes, through granting property rights and
access to existing and newly acquired know-how. Until now, such
exchange of knowledge has mainly occurred between industrialized
countries. As experience in Asia's fast growing economies shows,
consistent educational reform and development of own research
capacities are major prerequisites for exchange, and should therefore
form the basis for measures and programs in the industrial countries.
Deficits exist regarding the framework for competition of enterprises
with global operations, the restructuring of patent law, the right
to intellectual property and the application of liability law
in the exchange of information. Satisfactory coordination between
environmental and development policy, on the one hand, and industrial
and trade policy, on the other, has been lacking to date, and
will have to be given greater attention in the future.
Global environmental policy institutions primarily exist as
horizontal self-coordination between nation-states because of
the lack of higher hierarchical control levels. They use both
direct and indirect control instruments. International
institutional arrangements and practices change within the scope
of a process, which may result in the formulation and implementation
of more effective targets and measures.
In accordance with the basic principle of national sovereignty,
environmental policy depends on the approval of nations in each
individual case. Accordingly, the decision-making process
traditionally takes place in the form of negotiations. Decison-making
is thus characterized by differing interest structures in the
individual nations, and is usually a complicated and protracted
process. The implementation of international action programs that
have been agreed upon is also a complex process, and in most cases
can only be monitored on the basis of corresponding reports by
the nation-states. Even if violations against agreed arrangements
are detected, compliance with the respective arrangements can
only be enforced under very specific conditions.
However, a variety of institutional innovations have been initiated
in the course of the internationalization of environmental policy
since the mid-80s. They include the setting up of institutions
for a transfer of finance and technology from North to South,
as a form of direct control, as well as certain changes
that have been made in process, resource and organizational control
by means of indirect control.
Important institutional arrangements in the form of funds have
been set up for finance and technology transfers such
that - as in the case of the Montreal Protocol and the Convention
on Climate Change - the environmental protection obligation on
the part of the developing countries is tied to a transfer obligation
of the industrial countries on a legally binding basis. If the
North does not pay, the South is relieved of its obligations.
In addition, a partial change in traditional direct control is
taking place in environmental policy, resulting in a growing preference
for forms of indirect control in accordance with the concept of
sustainable development. These innovative approaches include
the development of human and institutional capacities (capacity
building) in developing countries, resource transfer to poorer
nations, new rights to participation for non-governmental actors,
and agreement on procedures that promote a reconciliation of interests
without the need for a hierarchical regulatory framework, and
which facilitate and accelerate both decision-making and implementation.
Germany has played an important role in the formulation of global
environmental policy in only a few sectors to date; indeed, many
an opportunity for exerting influence has been wasted. Nevertheless,
it has a significant potential for influencing the further development
of global environmental policy by virtue of its economic and technological
strength, its political importance, especially in the European
Union, as well as its high degree of environmental awareness and
broad benevolent support from the general public. In some cases
of global agreements Germany has shown a relatively strong financial
commitment, e.g. with regard to the GEF. In view of this background,
a more active role on the part of Germany in providing for an
institutional innovation of global environmental policy has considerable
prospects of success.
The growth and location of the world's population are key determinants
of global environmental change. The annual increase of approx.
95 million people, spreading urbanization, particularly in
developing countries, and growing international migration pressure
in the direction of Europe and North America set the context for
global environmental policy.
The long-term forecasts regarding population increase have
been slightly corrected downward in recent years. However, this
must not be taken as a reason for a let-up in efforts to further
reduce growth rates. Rather, given the slowdown in fertility decline
and the delay in "demographic transition", the opposite
conclusion should be drawn: for the very reason that there is
cause for hope of success through the initiated efforts, the latter
must be reinforced.
The quantitative increase in international migrations,
and refugee flows in particular, is alarming. While roughly 50 million
people (i.e. 1% of the world's population) lived outside of their
native country in 1989, the total number of transboundary migrants
only a few years later had already reached a figure of more than
100 million.
A total of approx. 83% of worldwide population growth is accounted
for by urban regions, i.e. the urban population will increase
by some 75 million people annually over the next decade.
Cities will be subjected to tremendous pressure as a result of
the population growth and immigration. The rapid expansion of
cities will give rise to immense social and environmental costs.
If it is not possible to put a halt to this process, many cities
will "collapse".
In accordance with the "Rio Declaration" and AGENDA 21, the Council views the following as the most important objectives:
Despite urgents warnings by scientists about disturbing trends,
there has been a further increase in the use of fossil fuels and
hence in the level of CO2 emissions on a worldwide scale (IEA,
1994). There is no empirical evidence for a change in this trend,
nor can any such change be anticipated, one reason being the rapid
growth in world population and the quantitative expansion of the
world economy. On this background, the first Conference of the
Parties to the Climate Convention in 1995 to fulfill the hopes
by many observers has been declared a failure. Firstly, the Conference
did not adopt a protocol, and secondly, the wording of the Berlin
Mandate gives rise to worries that the substance of the protocol
to be adopted in two years might not match up to original expectations.
On the other hand, there is no denying that the Berlin Conference,
by acknowledging the inadequacy of existing commitments and adopting
the Mandate to draw up a protocol, has taken the next steps for
an effective climate protection policy. What is important now
is that commitments and targets be upheld and developed further
in a determined manner, in order that the Climate Convention becomes
a powerful instrument of global climate policy.
In its 1995 annual report, the Council presents various scenarios
for the global reduction of CO2. They were calculated with the
help of mathematical-physical models, featuring a new modeling
approach, a "backwards mode" ("inverse scenario").
By analyzing the environmentally and economically tolerable stresses
induced by climate change, a so-called "tolerance window"
is calculated for an admissible degree of climatic change, from
which the maximum CO2 emissions are then derived. The main
conclusions of the scenarios are:
One can assume that the reduction commitments resulting from these demands for the time being will be restricted to the Annex I-countries (industrialized countries). In order to make a system of rigid national quotas more flexible, the Council recommends deploying Joint Implementation as an instrument, which could possibly be extended into a system of internationally tradeable emission entitlements. By applying these instruments, the necessary emission reductions could be achieved more cost-effectively, while at the same time facilitating access to energy-efficient technologies for the developing countries.
The emissions of the main anthropogenic source gases which
cause the formation of chlorine and bromine in the stratosphere
(such as CFCs, carbon tetrachloride, halons and methyl chloroform)
have slowed down considerably. This is attributable to the Montreal
Protocol and the amendments thereto. The increase in Freon-11
in 1993, for example, was 25 to 30% less than in the 1970s and
1980s. The maximum contamination with chlorine and bromine in
the troposphere was probably in the year 1994, but will not occur
for another 3 to 5 years in the stratosphere (IPCC, 1994). Due
to the longevity of ozone-depleting substances, the stratospheric
ozone layer will not be able to regain its original state until
the middle of the next century.
Stratospheric ozone depletion of approx. 3% per decade
is the cumulative impact of regionally and temporally different
trends (WBGU, 1993). Over the tropics and subtropics (30deg. N
to 30deg. S), i.e. in about half the Earth's atmosphere,
no significant ozone depletion has as yet been measured. Depletion
is therefore all the more severe in the other regions, with ozone
depletion particularly drastic during the spring months over the
Antarctic continent (the so-called "ozone hole").
However, there is also a marked tendency towards depletion over
mid and high latitudes in Europe in the order of 5% per decade.
The Convention on the Law of the Sea, which went into effect on November 16, 1994, offers a global framework based on international law for combining existing individual regimes. It might thus provide the foundation for a functional global regime of marine protection. Representing an important step forward, this "constitution of the oceans" designates environmental protection as the basic standard for all forms of marine use and requires the Parties to implement the relevant regulatory frameworks as minimum international standards, or at least take them into consideration with respect to terrestrial sources of emissions. However, to an integrated environmental management of the seas still appears to be a long way to go. Even in the endangered regional waters of the industrial countries only partial improvements were attainable up to now, and in the developing countries there continues to be a lack of the requisite financial and technical resources, which the industrialized countries, in turn, still do not seem willing to provide to the required extent. If international measures for the protection of the seas are not carried out, however, far-reaching and, in some cases, irreversible damage can be expected in view of the continued rise in population in the coastal regions, the growth of industrial production and increasing pollution in the large river catchments.
In its 1994 annual report, the Council focused in detail and
at length on the problem of soil degradation. The analysis showed
that soils are the vulnerable thin skin of the Earth for which
serious "illnesses" can be diagnosed worldwide.
These "illnesses" represent a serious threat
to the Earth's population and biosphere that in some parts of
the world is already dramatic.
The Desertification Convention adopted in 1994 has created
an important framework by defining certain basic requirements
for combating desertification, for example, increasing
efficiency of bilateral and multilateral cooperation, intensive
exchange of data and mutual information between donors, involvement
of the population in support measures, strengthening support through
transfer of research and technology, taking local circumstances
into consideration and providing for active participation of recipient
countries.
However, the Convention is somewhat programmatic in character,
while binding operational and specific financial consequences
were not fixed. The significance of the Convention lies more in
the political and psychological sphere than in specific development
programs. The Council also regrets that the wording of the Desertification
Convention does not go much further than mere declarations of
intent. The only new and additional source of finance mentioned
therein is the GEF, and that only with considerable restrictions.
Nor was the 0.7% of GNP target for development aid included
in the Convention. In the opinion of the Council, which has repeatedly
demanded that development aid be substantially replenished, there
is no solid financial basis for genuinely combating desertification.
Nevertheless, the coming into force of the Desertification Convention
means that important issues relating to bilateral and multilateral
cooperation for the regions specified in the Convention will be
affected.
The Convention on Biological Diversity is the first
internationally binding Convention that applies a trans-sectoral
approach to the protection of global biodiversity. The objective
is not simply that of nature conservation, but also "the
sustainable use of biological resources, and the equitable sharing
of the benefits arising out of the utilization of genetic resources".
Access to genetic resources is also established as a principle
of international law. The First Conference of the Parties
in Nassau in 1994 succeeded in establishing the basis for further
work. The next step is to implement the convention in the contracting
parties, for which the production of national reports on the status
of biodiversity and the development of strategies for integrating
the convention's objectives into national policymaking are of
particular importance.
It is too early as yet to assess the success of the Biodiversity
Convention, since no detailed results can be expected at this
stage of the convention's process. One positive aspect is that
the financing mechanism is already being applied to projects aimed
at achieving the objectives of the Biodiversity Convention, and
that the Conference of the Parties decided on eligibility criteria.
The Council considers it important for the future negotiation
process that a protocol on biosafety be formulated and
adopted without delay, that an instrument be developed
for protecting forests and that FAO's "International Undertaking
on Plant Genetic Resources" be adapted to the Biodiversity
Convention. The public discussions relating to the Convention
have sharpened awareness in society for the seriousness of species
and biotope losses. This is all the more important, in that attaining
the Convention's objectives cannot be left entirely to national
authorities, but also requires the active support of environmental
organizations and the public at large.
A reversal of the global trends towards loss and degradation
of forests is not foreseeable at the present time. This makes
the lack of binding instruments of global environmental policy
for the protection of the forests based on international law all
the more aggravating. After the failure to draw up such a document
at the UNCED in Rio de Janeiro in 1992, where only a non-binding
"Forest Declaration" was adopted, this issue
continues to be of utmost importance to the current situation.
On the one hand, the issue of forests could be treated in a separate
convention (Forest Convention); on the other hand, it would
be possible to regulate the use of forests in a protocol on the
basis of the Biodiversity Convention (Forest Protocol).
Given that forests are an integral element of "biological
diversity", immediate action is required in view of the dramatic
pace of their destruction. Since the Biodiversity Convention has
already gone into effect, a "Forest Protocol"
would presumably take less time for negotiation than drawing up
a completely new "Forest Convention", whose basic
objectives would first have to be agreed upon. Moreover, a regulation
of forest use separate from the Biodiversity Convention may lead
to decisive weakening and marginalization of that convention.
The economies of the world are becoming increasingly integrated,
as evidenced in particular by increasing international trade,
the globalization of production and markets, and the growing number
and importance of multinational corporations. The consequences
of these developments among others are intensified international
division of labor and increasing international exchange of goods.
The institutional framework for regulating international trade
is the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT), which
after the completion of the latest round on the reduction of tariffs
was turned into the World Trade Organization (WTO). Trade-environment
interactions have become more prominent in the internationale
debate. Particularly negative environmental effects may result
from a higher level of transport, increasing resource consumption
or the shifting of polluting industries to countries with lower
environmental standards. Positive environmental effects, on the
other hand, can be anticipated if growth effects create financial
scope for more environmental protection, if the exchange of goods
leads to the diffusion of low-emission technologies, or if a higher
level of environmental awareness is generated via the transfer
of knowledge associated with the exchange of goods and production
factors.
The agreements reached in 1994 at the end of the "Uruguay
Round" have brought about important changes, above all
the inclusion of protection and preservation of the environment
and the principle of sustainable development as key objectives
in the Preamble to the Agreement establishing the WTO, the dismantling
of product-related subsidies in agriculture and textiles, and
the reform of dispute settlement procedures. In the view of the
Council, however, the integration of environmental issues and
considerations into the GATT/WTO-regime has yet to be accomplished.
Solving global environmental problems demands, first of all, the
improvement of certain societal conditions. Three basic
concepts appear to be especially important:
The second approach to solving global environmental problems involves
the formulation and implementation of international agreements.
The following general conclusions relate to this second approach:
The Council wishes to emphasize that the main trends of global
change - population growth, climate change, loss of biological
diversity, degradation of soils, and scarcity of freshwater -
show no signs of amelioration, and in some cases are worsening
still further. The need for solutions to these global problems
is therefore more urgent than ever before.
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