Climate Protection Strategies for the 21st Century. Kyoto and Beyond

Special Report 2003
WBGU, Berlin, © 2003
77 p. (download as pdf, 1.6 MB), 4 tables, 24 figure, brochure, ISBN 3-936191-04-2

Global climate change is a threat that is already having initial tangible impacts upon humankind and nature today. Due to the inertia of the climate system, this development can no longer be prevented entirely. However, it is still possible, through cooperation among the international community and through national-level efforts, to stabilize the CO2 concentration in the atmosphere and thus prevent the most severe changes. Shaping the international climate regime will continue to be an urgent policy task over the coming decades. With this special report, the German Advisory Council on Global Change (WBGU) provides recommendations for future negotiations within the context of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), particularly relating to the Kyoto Protocol to the Convention. The report centres on three questions:

  • What is ‘dangerous climate change’ within the meaning of Article 2 of the UNFCCC?
  • Which socio-economically and technologically viable pathways are available to prevent such dangerous climate change?
  • How can all countries be integrated equitably within a system of emissions reduction commitments?


To address these questions, we must lift our gaze far beyond the time horizon of the Kyoto Protocol’s second commitment period (after 2012), as the stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations at a tolerable level can only be achieved by means of a long-term, ambitious reduction of greenhouse gas emissions.
     The report concentrates on the potentials to reduce the emissions of carbon dioxide, this being the principal anthropogenic greenhouse gas. The analysis focuses, on the one hand, on the economic and technological potentials to reduce energy- and industryrelated emissions and, on the other hand, on the relevance of biological sinks of carbon dioxide and the options to preserve them.Finally, based on this analysis, the report contains specific recommendations on ways to shape political and economic instruments in the second commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol.

Commissioned Expert's Studies

For this Special Report, the Council has commissioned three expert's studies, which are available for download:
    

  • Hare: Assessment of Knowledge on Impacts of Climate Change (1.6 MB, 104 p.)
  • Michaelowa, Butzengeiger, Jung, Dutschke: Beyond 2012 - Evolution of the Kyoto Protocol Regime (629 KB, 54 p.)
  • Nakicenovic, Riahi: Model Runs with MESSAGE in the Context of the Further Development of the Kyoto Protocol (1.3 MB, 85 p.)


The following Expert's Study relates to the supply of data or to model runs, so that results are not or not only available in written form.

  •  Nakicenovic, Riahi: Scenario Data for Model Runs with MESSAGE in the Context of the Further Development of the Kyoto Protocol