World in Transition: Climate Change as a Security Risk
Flagship Report 2007
German Advisory Council on Global Change
- Full text, 248 pages (download as pdf, 19.2 MB) hardback £75.00 (ISBN 978-1-84407-536-2). The book is available as a paperback version also at www.routledge.com (978-1-84407-761-8, £34.99).
- Summary, 14 pages (download as pdf, 1.4 MB), ISBN 978-3-936191-20-2
"With Climate Change as a Security Risk, WBGU has compiled a flagship report on an issue that quite rightly is rising rapidly up the international political agenda. The authors pull no punches on the likelihood of increasing tensions and conflicts in a climatically constrained world and spotlight places where possible conflicts may flare up in the 21st century unless climate change is checked. The report makes it clear that climate policy is preventative security policy."
UN Under-Secretary General and Executive Director, United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP)
Without resolute counteraction, climate change will overstretch many societies’ adaptive capacities within the coming decades. This could result in destabilization and violence, jeopardizing national and international security to a new degree. However, climate change could also unite the international community, provided that it recognizes climate change as a threat to humankind and soon sets the course for the avoid-ance of dangerous anthropogenic climate change by adopting a dynamic and globally coordinated climate policy. If it fails to do so, climate change will draw ever-deeper lines of division and conflict in international relations, triggering numerous conflicts between and within countries over the distribution of resources, especially water and land, over the management of migration, or over compensation payments between the countries mainly responsible for climate change and those countries most affected by its destructive effects.
That is the backdrop against which WBGU, in this flagship report, summarizes the state-of-the-art of science on the subject of “Climate Change as a Security Risk”. It is based on the findings of research into environmental conflicts, the causes of war, and of climate impact research. It appraises past experience but also ventures to cast a glance far into the future in order to assess the likely impacts of climate change on societies, nation-states, regions and the international system.